CAN Barack Obama seduce even the Muslim world? So far I have manfully resisted falling for Obama and becoming an antipodean Obama boy. But, like everyone else on the globe, I bear witness to his charm and smoothness.
I suffer a certain ambiguity in my attitude to Obama. He is the President of the US and as such an enormous force for good in the world. He represents the continuity of overwhelmingly beneficial American policy. So at one level I am all for him.
On the other hand, it is impossible not to be annoyed by the double standards that the Bush-hating media applies to him. Can you imagine the noise and fuss that would be made if George W. Bush had tried to appoint to his cabinet a gaggle of charmed plutocrats who apparently felt the payment of tax was entirely optional?
But the fact Obama has a double standard working in his favour is a great benefit for those who appreciate the importance of US leadership in the world. So I should rejoice in the double standard and hope it continues for the eight years Obama is likely to be President.
After all, on all the big foreign policy questions, Obama has continued Bush's policies. The predator drones still fly over Pakistan, destroying any al-Qa'ida operative dumb enough to talk on the phone. The terrorists are still in Guantanamo as Obama's administration develops the Bush administration's decision to shut Guantanamo, as a necessity of global PR, while trying to stop the terrorists from going back to killing civilians. Like Bush, Obama is pursuing an attempt to engage the Iranian regime and even using the same official Bush did. He is withdrawing from Iraq very slowly, on a timetable approved by Republican senator John McCain. He acknowledges the success of the US troop surge in Iraq and wants to emulate it in Afghanistan. He stands four square behind Israel's security. And so on.
Yet while much of the world hated Bush with an irrational passion, allegedly for these policies, it loves Obama with at least a seemingly similar passion, notwithstanding these very same policies. This is a bit of a mystery, but so far at least it's a good mystery.
A few days ago Obama delivered an immensely important speech in Turkey. Much of it was about the US-Turkey relationship and that was important in itself. Ankara was a shrewd choice as a venue for Obama to make his pitch to the Muslim world. It is the only Muslim nation in the vicinity of the Middle East in which Obama could possibly praise the virtues of democracy and the steadfastness of the NATO alliance. Obama flattered Turkey and it may be that he ignored some disturbing recent Islamist trends in Turkey's politics. Nonetheless it was the right note for him to strike.
Obama praised modern Turkey's founder Kemal Ataturk and in particular said: "His greatest legacy is Turkey's strong, vibrant, secular democracy." Thus Obama didn't have to criticise Islamist tendencies in Turkey directly to nonetheless make it clear that he hoped the secular, democratic impulses continued to prevail there.
Similarly, he cleverly restated US support for Israel by praising Turkey's longstanding strategic relationship with Israel, saying: "Like the US, Turkey has been a friend and partner in Israel's quest for security." Obama went on to say that both Turkey and the US also supported an independent Palestinian state. But that is not controversial in front of a Muslim audience. Committing yourself to Israel's security to Muslim applause is much more remarkable.
Obama strongly recommitted the US to supporting Turkey's bid to join the European Union and referred to Turkey as already part of Europe. This is perhaps a pivotal factor in Turkey's development. If it is accepted into the EU it will probably continue modernising and reforming. If it makes all the reforms and is still rejected, this will play into Turkish interpretations of European racial and religious prejudice. Yet France and Germany have virtually made it clear they won't accept Turkey. Obama wants to make sure the US doesn't get the blame for any decision along those lines.
But the real purpose of Obama's speech was his broader pitch to the Muslim world. Much as I love Indonesia, it probably is true that this had a greater resonance in the Arab world by being delivered in Turkey (not that Turks are Arabs) than it would have had if it had been delivered in Jakarta. The speech was carried live on al-Jazeera and al-Arabiya television networks.
Obama said: "The US is not, and will never be, at war with Islam. In fact our partnership with the Muslim world is critical not just in rolling back the violent ideologies that people of all faiths reject but also to strengthen opportunity for all its people. I want to make it clear that America's relationship with the Muslim community, the Muslim world, cannot, and will not, just be based upon opposition to terrorism. We seek broader engagement based on mutual interest and mutual respect. We will listen carefully, we will bridge misunderstandings and we will seek common ground. We will be respectful, even when we do not agree. We will convey our deep appreciation for the Islamic faith, which has done so much over the centuries to shape the world, including my own country."
These were all sweet and sensible words by Obama, delivered with charm and grace. They were almost exactly the same as words Bush had uttered countless times. Yet the reaction in the Arab world was overwhelmingly positive.
This is fascinating and it is very difficult to judge its precise significance.
Most Arab political cultures are awash in the most bizarre paranoia and conspiracy theories. Yet at the same time electronic media is having a huge influence in the Arab world. Often these media carry and exaggerate the paranoia. But they also carry some version, no matter how filtered and adulterated, of the real world.
Moreover, even those Arabs who don't like the modern world still live in that world. Arab societies themselves are affected by the dynamics of celebrity. And right now Obama is the biggest celebrity in the world.
There is also undoubtedly a racial aspect to all this. Much of the paranoia in Arab culture has a racial element. In the vast, informal alliance between Islamist extremism and the political Left in the West, a common enemy, a common villain, is Western colonialism. Obama, as an African-American, appeals, at least subconsciously, as a fellow victim of white colonialism rather than a representative of a new wave of white colonialism. Much of these dynamics are operating subconsciously, which is why their logical contradictions don't matter too much.
The real question is whether this desirable honeymoon of Muslim affection for Obama will last and what strategic consequences it will have. Already the Noam Chomsky Left in the West is presenting Obama as an agent of American hegemony. No doubt in due course the Islamists will paint him in the same light. But he may just be able to appeal over their heads directly to Arab and other Muslim publics.
One way this could be derailed would be if there were to come a time when Obama had to take tough national security action, perhaps in Iran, which would be unpopular with Muslim publics.
But just now it's a fascinating concentration of very dynamic factors.
As someone who broadly supported neo-conservative foreign policy, long live the cult of Obama, say I.
From here you can use the Social Web links to save Obama is Dubya's acceptable face to a social bookmarking site.
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