Over the past few years, Thailand's political elites have waged a battle on the streets of the capital using mobs to throw democratically elected governments out of power. Now it is the turn of the supporters of Thaksin Shinawatra, the deposed former prime minister, to wreak their revenge. Meanwhile the economic losses mount, and one of Asia's oldest democracies looks more and more fragile. So where did Thailand go wrong?
For decades, power-brokers in the military, parliament and boardroom used the government to enrich themselves. The populist Mr. Thaksin threatened their interests by obtaining a strong democratic mandate to start expensive government programs to benefit the rural poor, and also to open the door wider to the forces of globalization and competition. Last weekend's riots by the "Red Shirts," Mr. Thaksin's supporters, mimicked the tactics used by the anti-Thaksin forces, the "Yellow Shirts," in late 2008. That group also surrounded government buildings and blockaded Bangkok's airports for days, bringing the country to a virtual standstill.
Both protests reflect an increasingly polarized Thai society. On the Yellow side are monarchists who profess loyalty to King Bhumibol Adulyadej, the army, many academics, some of the business elite, and ordinary Thais mainly from the southern provinces. On the Red side are supporters of Mr. Thaksin, including business owners who benefited under his rule, and many rural voters especially in the north and northeast of the country who also reaped the rewards of his populist "Thaksinomics."
The Reds have the advantage of sheer numbers, and most probably free and fair elections would return pro-Thaksin forces to leadership. The Yellows claim legitimacy because of their loyalty to the king; they also have the army and, for the most part, the police force behind them. In the middle are large numbers of ordinary Thais who want to get back to stability and prosperity.
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