For the sake of political alliances, several MPs are being dumped from the electoral lists that took them to victory in 2005. Christian parties on both sides of the political spectrum are nudging their allies to offer them space on lists across the country, while the Future Movement is dropping a number of MPs as it forges alliances. While the lists may end up including a broader range of parties, the actual impact of who's running where, and indeed the impact of the elections, may not be drastic. "The balance of power will stay the same, and the political struggle will not really change,"� said MP Mustapha Allouch, a Future Movement member who is not running for re-election in Tripoli so that former Prime Minister Najib Mikati can have a spot on the March 14 list in the northern city. On Friday, the heated jockeying over lists in Metn prompted Democratic Renewal MP Nassib Lahoud to withdraw from the race for the seat he currently holds. Negotiations between allies will also reduce the seats held by locally dominant parties on electoral lists in areas like Baabda, Aley and the Chouf and Tripoli. The Progressive Socialist Party, for example, is sacrificing a spot on the March 14 list in the Baabda and Chouf districts for allies from Christian parties. Chouf MP Nabil Boustany and Baabda MP Abdullah Farhat, both PSP members, are off the March 14 lists in their districts to make room for National Liberal Party candidates. Boustany did not register as a candidate this year so that NLP leader Dory Chamoun could run instead.
Farhat was asked to step aside so that NLP member Elias Abu Assi could take his spot on the March 14 list in Baabda. "Christian parties within the March 14 alliance put pressure to prevent my candidacy,"� Farhat, who is still registered as a candidate in the district, told New TV on Thursday. PSP leader MP Walid Jumblatt has discussed the details of these deals in several local newspapers in recent weeks, though the official March 14 lists in Baabda and the Chouf have yet to be announced. Generally, in Lebanese elections, not being on a list means not making it to parliament, but Habib Malek, an analyst and assistant professor of history at the Lebanese American University, cautioned that anything could happen between now and June 7. "I think it's still very byzantine in the sense that you may get an outward acceptance by a group to relinquish seats to other presumed allies, and then the word may go out to that group's supporters to cross out the name [of the nonparty member on election day],"� Malek said. In Aley, PSP member and MP Faisal Sayegh's spot on the March 14 list is being left vacant in favor of Talal Arslan, the head of the Lebanese Democratic Party. Arslan is the main Druze rival of MP Jumblatt. In 2005, Jumblatt slighted Arslan by including Sayegh on the March 14 list for Aley as that spot was traditionally left vacant for Arslan. Following the "reconciliation in the Mountain"� between Arslan and Jumblatt in the wake of the May events, the two struck a deal whereby March 8 and March 14 lists in Aley each leave one Druze seat vacant to presumably ensure both Druze leaders make it to parliament. The Future Movement is also sacrificing a spot in the district, with party member Antoine Andraous, who currently holds Aley's one Greek Orthodox seat, opting out of the race to make room for Kataeb party member Fadi Habr on the March 14 list. This is not the only spot where Future is jettisoning party members so allies can have spots on March 14 lists. In Tripoli, the alliance between Future Movement leader Saad Hariri, Economy and Trade Minister Mohammed Safadi and Mikati cost Allouch his place the March 14 list. "Some people have to go,"� Allouch told NOW. Several Lebanese newspapers have suggested that Mikati wants two seats in Tripoli, one for himself and one for Ahmad Karami, cousin of former Prime Minster Omar Karami, and that Future may grant Mikati his wish by handing him the spot of MP Misbah Ahdab. Ahdab is a member of the Democratic Renewal movement but has been a close Hariri family ally since he first won a seat in Tripoli in 1992. He has registered as a candidate for the June elections and has shown no indication he will withdraw. Ahdab did not return phone calls seeking comment. Future may also be asking some of its MPs in Beirut, Donniyeh-Minieh, and/or Akkar to step aside as it tries to strike an alliance with the Islamic party al-Jamaa al-Islamiya. Four Future Movement MPs representing Beirut did not register this year and posters of al-Jamaa al-Islamiya candidate Imad Hout are springing up around the Hamra Street neighborhood in West Beirut. The Free Patriotic Movement, it seems, is for the most part sticking with its current MPs in districts the party won in 2005. Not all of the FPM's lists have been announced, but almost all FPM MPs registered to run again in 2009. FPM leader Michel Aoun and Amal head Nabih Berri are locked in a dispute over Christian spots on March 8 lists in Baabda and the southern district of Jezzine. Aoun is trying to use his alliance with Hezbollah to wrest a seat or two from Berri, who does not seem willing to play ball.
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