The New Kremlin Dreamers

Several weeks ago in Voronezh, First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov said the ambitious goals for "Strategy 2020" remain in place despite the economic crisis. He also said Russia has every chance of becoming the world's most desirable place to live by 2020. "This is no fairy tale," Shuvalov added, but if you examine the strategy closely, it certainly looks like one.

Consider the four main goals of Strategy 2020:

1. Increase per capita gross domestic product to $30,000 from its current $15,800 based on purchasing-power parity. Although it is difficult to compare developed economies with developing ones, it took Canada 28 years, Britain 24 years, Japan 27 years and the United States 35 years to double their per capita GDPs. How will Russia do it in only 11 years? True, if  you look at a BRIC country -- China -- it was able to double its per capita GDP income in less time, but China's has enjoyed average GDP growth of more than 10 percent over the past decade (its "crisis growth" in 2009  is expected to be 8 percent!), while Russia's growth rate has been much lower for this period. It would be more appropriate to look at Brazil, another BRIC country, which has a profile much closer to Russia. Brazil has not been able to accomplish doubling its per capita GDP over a 11-year period since 1980.

2. Increase life expectancy to 75 years. This doesn't require any doubling, but it still requires a 13.6 percent increase over current life expectancy of 66 years. The only way this goal can be reached is if Russia is able to bring its health care system up to Western standards by 2020 and if the majority of Russians are able to change their unhealthy lifestyles.

3. Increase the middle class to 60 percent of the population. This is a tricky one since it depends on how you define "middle class." Russia often uses a monthly income of 15,000 rubles ($454) as a starting point. True, every country has its own definition of a "middle-class lifestyle," but 15,000 rubles is a stretch any way you look at it, particularly considering Russia's chronically high inflation.