For centuries tourists have traveled to the walled city of Shibam in eastern Yemen to see the world's oldest skyscrapers -- the 500 fascinating mud-brick structures that rise up to 16 stories high, earning Shibam the nickname "Manhattan of the dessert." Several weeks ago, four South Korean tourists elected to have their picture taken while watching the sun set over this awe-inspiring World Heritage Site. As they posed for the camera, a Yemeni teenager walked up and asked to have his picture taken alongside the sightseers.
Within seconds, the Yemeni teen detonated the explosives' belt wrapped around his waist, killing himself and the four unsuspecting tourists.
Several days later, a suicide bomber in Yemen blew the windows out of a South Korean diplomatic vehicle carrying the bereaved relatives of the four murdered vacationers.
These attacks were the dirty work of AQAP -- the newest franchise in the old Al Qaeda terrorist network. Last year, Al Qaeda websites urged frustrated Saudi operatives to flee to Yemen, where they were joined by others arriving from Iraq, Somalia, and Pakistan. Banding together they formed "Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula" -- or AQAP.
None of this is good news for Yemen's fragile democracy, which is facing a severe economic crisis and potential economic collapse because the country's oil resources -- which provide nearly 90 percent of the country's export earnings -- are nearly exhausted.
Yemen is the poorest country in the Arab world. Many of its government institutions are corrupt, one-third of its people suffer from malnutrition, and the country suffers from severe water shortages. Yemen's population of 23 million people owns more than 23 million firearms. You might say it's a witch's brew of potential disaster.
Is Yemen the next Afghanistan?
It depends on who you ask.
Princeton University Ph.D. candidate Gregory Johnsen, a former Fulbright Fellow in Yemen, told Huffington Post that while he doesn't think Yemen will supplant the Afghanistan-Pakistan border region as the most important front in the war against Al Qaeda, he does believe Yemen has become "a significant front" now that the Al Qaeda organization has gone from a local chapter to a regional franchise.
Johnsen, who blogs about Yemen at www.islamandinsurgencyinyemen.blogspot.com, warned that Yemen's economy is getting weaker by the day. "And as less and less money comes in, the government is less able to control the state, primarily because deals made in the past were dependent upon having enough money to buy off domestic opponents. If Yemen becomes a failed state, it will open up a great deal of space for terrorist groups and individuals to move in."
This possibility concerns the U.S. for many reasons, including the fact that Yemen shares a border with Saudi Arabia and it controls the narrow Bab-el-Mandeb Straight, a checkpoint through which 3.3 million barrels of oil are shipped every day.
"Information on Yemen is hard to get, so people will project all kinds of fears," cautioned Charles Schmitz, an associate professor at Towson University. Schmitz told Huffington Post that one of the big misunderstandings is that somehow Yemen is going to become what Afghanistan was prior to 2001 -- a base from which international enemies of the U.S. can operate. "In my opinion, Al Qaeda is an irritant, but they are no more than an irritant," said Schmitz. "The Yemeni government has enough control to knock out a permanent Al Qaeda training camp."
Schmitz, who is also president of the American Institute for Yemeni Studies, isn't convinced Al Qaeda's effectiveness in Yemen is increasing. "The double attack on the South Korean travelers had a certain sophistication, but was it more sophisticated than the USS Cole bombing?"
Whether or not the attacks are sophisticated, terrorist activity in Yemen has certainly increased. Could AQAP launch a major attack in the Gulf region?
"On that point, I'm skeptical," Thomas Hegghammer told Huffington Post. "Still, I think it's important to try and contain AQAP because if they're allowed to establish a safe haven in Yemen, they will use it to prepare more sophisticated operations, including attacks within Saudi Arabia." Hegghammer, who is a fellow at Harvard University's Kennedy School of Government, blogs at www.jihadica.com.
AQAP has already announced through various media that they intend to use the under-governed regions of Yemen as a staging ground for attacks in Saudi Arabia, according to Johnsen.
"The Yemeni government has rounded up a lot of lower level people who may or may ot be involved in terrorist acts, but they haven't touched the big guys," Christoph Wilcke told Huffington Post. Wilcke is a senior researcher at Human Rights Watch.
A more ambitious Al Qaeda is not the biggest security threat facing Yemen.
"I think the economy is the most pressing security issue, and the one that will ultimately have the biggest impact on the country," said Johnsen. "However, president Saleh is also dealing with a civil war and social unrest. These three things are bigger problems in Yemen than Al Qaeda is, and they are coming together and making Yemen an incredibly difficult place to rule."
The breakdown of the Somalian government also has put pressure on Yemen. So is Yemen the next Somalia? Not according to Schmitz. "If you go to any of the state-failure data bases, you will see that Yemen's state capacity is increasing on most -- but certainly not all -- indicators. I don't believe Yemen is going to fall apart in that manner."
Nevertheless, it won't be easy for the U.S. to aid Yemen. According to sources at the Human Rights Watch, the Bush administration said they were frustrated with Yemen because "you never know who to trust."
"I understand that sentiment perfectly," said Hegghammer. "The state is weak in Yemen. It is a well-known fact that part of the security establishment has been infiltrated, and not necessarily by Al Qaeda. This poses a real dilemma for the U.S."
Hegghammer believes Saudi Arabia is the key to helping Yemen. "When it comes to combatting Al Qaeda, the Saudis have been very effective. They have expertise and resources they could share with Yemen. To some extent, I'm sure they already have. But I don't think they're doing as much as they can."
According to Wilcke, the U.S. should be wary of simply sending money to Yemen. He recommends the Obama administration attach strings to non-emergency aid. "To help Yemen, make sure you empower people in need, and consider extracting a political price from your assistance by insisting Yemen respect its obligations under international law."
Wilcke also believes the Yemeni government could do itself a favor by releasing many of the hundreds of people they've arrested with regard to the civil war, because the continued arrest and disappearance of people "is causing great grief and concern."
Schmitz would like to see the U.S. develop a long-term strategy for Yemen. "If you ask Yemenis what their biggest problem is, they're not going to say it's Al Qaeda. They're going to say it's poverty. Their big issue is development. They want schools and jobs and water."
Years ago, Yemen was a beacon of hope and democracy. Today their democracy is on hold: the upcoming elections have been postponed.
"Most of my friends are Yemenis, and it's sad to see the things they're up against," said Johnsen. "You can sit and have dinner with professors from Sana'a University and they'll talk about how most of their students graduate but can't find jobs...they're reduced to almost hawking stuff on the street."
Want to reply to a comment? Hint: Click "Reply" at the bottom of the comment; after being approved your comment will appear directly underneath the comment you replied to
is it me or is the mayan end of days calendar suddenly starting to look prophetic.................these crazies are getting closer and closer to a nuclear bomb, with lots of other crazies jumping up and down hoping to be ground zero..................what's wrong with this picture?
You must be logged in to reply to this comment. Log in or
While cable news outlets and major newspapers continue...
A year ago, in a blog post at Balkinization.com,...
New pictures are online of Richard Branson cavorting around his private island...
Updated below Senator Russ Feingold, one of the harshest critics...
Recently, I was amazed to hear a commentary by CNN's Campbell Brown on the...
Once again the simple-minded media and its pundits are confused about the nature of...
William Donohue of the Catholic League is on a mission. Whether it...
It's official. Today, I became a candidate for governor...
UPDATE 4/21/09: Less than a week after calling...
UPDATE: 11:55 PM: The Washington Post reports more new...
Update: scroll down for Smith's...
(SCROLL DOWN FOR VIDEO) Last week the Department of Justice released...
Miss California Carrie Prejean says she prays for Miss USA judge blogger...
WELLINGTON, Fla. — Ladies in their spring dresses and men in casual linen suits sipped champagne...
Adolf Hitler's Mein Kampf has become a popular book...
AKRON, Ohio — Ohio police say a 52-year-old woman...
Now that Spring is in full bloom, many of us are motivated to do spring cleaning....
Read Full Article »