The common story line with respect to China-Taiwan relations is that Ma Ying-jeou's election as Taiwan's president in 2008 has represented the signal change in the cross-Strait dynamic. Mr. Ma and his Kuomintang are undoubtedly more inclined to pursue friendlier relations with the mainland than the now-opposition Democratic Progressive Party and former President Chen Shui-bian. But the focus on Taipei politics obscures an equally important shift in Beijing. The Chinese leadership has also changed its approach to Taiwan, and in ways that seem to be catching the Taiwanese polity dangerously off guard.
Until relatively recently, Beijing's default attitude was confrontational. President Jiang Zemin, for instance, did not shy away from the threat of force. In March 1996, as Taiwan was engaged in its first popular presidential campaign, the People's Liberation Army fired missiles at Taiwanese waters to warn against Taiwan's move toward independence, prompting the United States to dispatch two aircraft carrier battle groups to forestall PLA invasion. But President Hu Jintao, Mr. Jiang's successor, tends to place greater emphasis on other means.
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