What Is the Real Danger in Pakistan?

The New York Times reports that Obama administration officials are increasingly worried about the Pakistani government's willingness to mount an effective defense against the Taliban. Although the Pakistani military is large and fairly well-equipped, it remains focused on defending the state against long-time rival India and is not well-prepared for a counter-insurgency campaign. Given that Pakistan reportedly has sixty or more nuclear weapons, the possibility of complete government collapse at some point in the future needs to be taken seriously, though other dangers may in fact be more likely.

I don't know enough about the situation to offer firm answers on what we should do, but here are some questions and comments.

1. First, why is there so much disagreement about Pakistan's prospects among knowledgeable experts?