Near-panic seized Pakistan's allies, as masked and heavily armed Taliban terrorists invaded the Buner district, 115 kilometres northwest of the capital Islamabad, overran government offices, looted foreign aid agencies and established makeshift sharia courts that banned everything from music to shaving.
The strategic consequences of the invasion are immense.
It exposed far more than Pakistan's fragility or Islamabad's vulnerability. It thrust the worst possible scenario to centre stage.
The Taliban, backed by al-Qaeda, are now established in a district that straddles two crucial targets. Just 50 km southeast of Buner lies the Tarbela Dam, the largest earth-filled dam in the world. It provides central Pakistan with most of its electricity and the country's farmers with most of their water.
Thirty km further on is the Wah Cantonment, an army ordinance complex that produces almost all Pakistan's weapons and military supplies "“ including nuclear weapons "“ in 14 massive factories employing up to 40,000 people.
According to some reports, Wah is the chief storage and maintenance site for Pakistan's nuclear weapons arsenal. It may also house a uranium enrichment plant built in the 1990s with assistance from China.
In addition to menacing Pakistan's capital, the Taliban and al-Qaeda can now spread out into the seven other districts surrounding Buner and threaten to destabilize Pakistan's economy, while continuing their quest to obtain weapons of mass destruction.
Yesterday, Admiral Michael Mullen, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, said he was "extremely concerned" by the Taliban's recent advances in Pakistan.
"We're certainly moving closer to the tipping point," where Pakistan could be overtaken by Islamic extremists, he said."The situation there is definitely worse than it was two weeks ago," he added. "It just continues to spin off."
Two days earlier, Hillary Clinton, the U.S. Secretary of State, blasted Islamabad for "abdicating" to the Taliban, saying Pakistan now presents "a mortal threat" to the rest of the world.
"[We] cannot underscore the seriousness of the existential threat posed to the state of Pakistan by the continuing advances, now within hours of Islamabad, that are being made by a loosely confederated group of terrorists and others who are seeking the overthrow of the Pakistani state," she said.
The Wah Cantonment was targeted by the Taliban last summer, when two suicide bombers tried to enter the factory complex simultaneously at different gates during an afternoon shift change. When they were stopped by security, the men blew themselves up, killing 70 people and wounding 1,000 others.
Yesterday, Pakistani newspapers reported security personnel at the Tarbela Dam were put on alert after the invasion of Buner.
More significant perhaps is the fact that last month Indian security services issued a similar alert "” only they feared Pakistani terrorists were poised to bomb two large Indian dams, the Bhakra and Nangal, in Himachal Pradesh. India's Intelligence Bureau and Research and Analysis Wing are said to have intercepted a cellphone conversation discussing the proposed dam attacks between members of Lashkar-e-Taiba (The Army of the Pure), a radical Islamist group allied to the Taliban that is believed responsible for last November's suicide guerrilla attacks on Mumbai.
Short of actually obtaining nuclear weapons, a worst-case scenario for the Taliban and al-Qaeda would be for the terrorist groups to establish themselves in safe enclaves in northern and northwestern Pakistan from which they could continue to attack Afghanistan, Pakistan, India and the West.
Pakistan's Taliban already shelters al-Qaeda's leaders, fuels the Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan, destabilizes Pakistan's northwest frontier tribal areas, controls international terrorist training camps and wages car bomb and suicide attacks as well as assassinations inside Pakistan.
"If present trends persist, the next generation of the world's most sophisticated terrorists will be born, indoctrinated and trained in a nuclear-armed Pakistan," warns Daniel Markey, a South Asian specialist with the Council on Foreign Relations.Yesterday, the Taliban temporarily withdrew from Buner, after the government threatened to use force to remove them. But locals say the Islamists still occupy bunkers in the mountains and can easily reassert themselves.For now, by expanding their influence deep into the heart of Pakistan, the Taliban have underlined the strength of their insurgency and driven a wedge between Washington and the Pakistani government.
Washington and Islamabad are already at loggerheads over a Pakistani peace deal with the Taliban in the Swat valley. This agreed to allow the introduction of isharia law in exchange for promises to end an 18-month old insurgency, in which Taliban terrorists beheaded their opponents, burned girls' schools and enforced strict social codes.
U.S. perceptions of Islamabad as confused, ineffective and reluctant to attack groups responsible for violence are balanced by Pakistanis' growing belief the U.S. "war on terror" is threatening to tear their country apart.
This week, Maulana Fazlur Rehman, head of the pro-Islamist Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (Islamic Party of Religious Leaders), complained in Pakistan's parliament the entire country risks being engulfed in terrorism if Pakistan persists in supporting the United States.
"If the Taliban continue to move at this pace, they will soon be knocking at the doors of Islamabad, as the Margala Hills seem to be the only hurdle in their march towards the federal capital," he said.National Postpgoodspeed@nationalpost.com
The utter stupidity of those who diverted both public opinion and military forces away from the real source of the terrorist threat to us all comes home to roost.
George W's legacy may turn out to be much more than bringing us all to brink economic collapse. The true extent of the damage his administration's policies did to the world is still revealing itself.
Well, percy78, very easy to be wise after the fact. People who comment as you do rarely seem to advocate for any specific action when the events actually take place.
C'mon percy78, what should the USA and Canada do right now, this very instant, today. Never mind the past, what is your cogent advice for right now?
As for GWB's legacy, whatever it is, it will have little to do with "bringing us to the brink [of] economic collapse", because it was a Democratic congress that did that. Ya see percy78, GWB is just the CEO - the board of directors, the ones that insist on things like the Community Lets Give Big Stupid Mortgages to Crooks and Losers Act, that was Democrat.
And then there's us, the voters, who demand more, more, more with every election and to hell with paying for it, let the kids worry about it.
And Puhleeze, don't tell me GWB proposed huge budgets. He was required by law to propose budgets to do what congress (Democrat!) mandated.
So, back to the Taliban. Bush put troops into Iraq and Afhanistan. The wisdom of Iraq? I dunno, and with respect, neither do you. That will take years to be clear. But I do know this. Congress authorized and approved the Iraq adventure. The Democrats weasel and wiggle now, but they did.
What should GWB have done? Asked congress for authority to invade Pakistan? The left squealed like the piggies they are at any attempt even to cooperate with Pakistan, which as you may recall was "an evil dictatorship of Musharaff", that devil, I wish he were back.
Any attempt by GWB to take any action in Pakistan would have resulted in all the percy78s in the universe barking like wild dogs.
Really, percy78, you and your lot have been objectively pro-Taliban for years.
Fred Z
Aw yes, the lack of accountability approach. A demonstration of an all-too-common mentality which proves the lack of substance needed to govern competently.
GWB's fictious WMDs aside, where did military intelligence say the organizers of 9/11 were based? It was quite a clearly defined area actually.
Hey, but what does it mean that the 9/11 perpetrators and their allies are as strong as ever. They may have lost the element of surprise they had before, but we are all still in great danger. No big deal though, just as long as GWB got the man who threatened his daddy.
Oh, by the way, my family and I do not take a back seat to the likes of you or anyone else in how much we have supported, and are supporting, our military. Your reaction to my post and the simplistic assumptions you automatically make is a further example that some have a very distorted perspective.
Obama doesnt have the nads to deal with the Pakistan problem.But I suspect India does.
When all else fails, blame Bush. Its the easy, simple-minded approach to understanding the world. If the Taliban or its jihadist friends get a hold of the nukes in Pakistan, all this whining and carping about Bush will be moot. So ... wake up, and smell the cordite!!! Obama's "timid diplomacy" is a far greater liability to world peace than anything that Bush did or didn't do! But you bushy haters can go back to sleep now. I'll wake you when the first flash from the nuclear fireball is detected over your head!!!
The opportunity for locking down the Afghan-Pakistan border was 6 years ago when our main allies decided to piss around in Iraq. It's like a cancer that was allowed to spread.
The window of opportunity for a situation like this had a limited opening, instead of doing it easy, now we have to do it hard. That will probably involve a full out civil war in Pakistan, something no one wants. I hope it can be avoided, but I lack optimism.
Pakistan is in a bad situation. Unlike Iraq, they have real WMD's.
Bush's fault, Obama's problem.
India is the only power than can deal with Pakistan legitimately, hence the west has agreed to stand back and allow the genocide in Sri Lanka to proceed unabated to appease India, in exchange for India's support of a war with Pakistan. Pakistan's nuclear weapons capability extends only to the surrounding area, with a missile capability of twenty five hundred miles and none capable of reaching north america or western Europe.
www.southasiaanalysis.org/.../paper148.html
With major military action in Iraq in particular, and to a lesser extent in Afghanistan, the troops of United State are already exhausted. Clearly some NATO countries are not willing to participate at an elevated level. So for those of you silly enough to think the US can go around the world and also seriously challenge other countries like Iran, North Korea, Pakistan, etc. with military action, please get a clue.
Or maybe you can explain where all of the soldiers and all of that money is going to come from?
Given a chance, diplomacy may indeed prove to be much cheaper in both lives and dollars. Right now billions upon billions have been spent on misguided approaches which have resulted in a stronger than ever terrorist organization knocking on the door of a government which controls nuclear weapons.
Yep, almost 8 years of the Bush approach sure has proven to be a brilliant one alright. We're nearly financially broke, our troops are tired, and the terrorists are stronger than ever. It's time for some smarts to kick in.
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