The North Caucasus has been plagued with violence since the collapse of the Soviet Union. When the USSR collapsed, repressed cultures flourished and resentment grew fueling nationalist sentiments among ethnic groups. Some became more radicalized than others. The actions of the Chechens, the most radicalized group, have attempted to spread their message to their neighboring Muslim republics. Despite the failing of Chechen rebels to implicate Dagestan—who has no desire to secede—in their plot to drive out the Russians, Dagestan might fall and allow for a Muslim or warfare-like republic to emerge.
Dagestan is a federal republic in the economic region of the North Caucasus. Its capital is Makhachkala, and the republic was established in 1921 under Soviet rule as it was forcibly annexed. It borders the Chechen Republic, Azerbaijan, Georgia, North Ossetia, and Kabardino-Balkaria. The main religion in Dagestan is Islam, which the sects of Sufis, the more radical Salafis, and Christians roughly make up nine percent. Four percent of Dagestanis are believed to be Wahhabis. Islam is a unifying force in Dagestan as the republic is home to more than 36 nationalities each with their own respective languages; Russian is the lingua franca of Dagestan. Russia funds 70 percent of Dagestan's local budget.
As 90 percent of Dagestanis are Muslim, the area is quite appealing to the more radical Muslims who wish to establish Shariah law or an Islamic-based order. The economic situation of the republic makes it a fertile breeding ground as the republic is poor and with high unemployment and is marred by corruption, underground economies, and constant clashes between clans.
Economically, the area is attractive as Dagestan's main industries are oil, petroleum production, textiles, and agriculture. Much of the republic's oil is exported to other regions and its natural gas deposits satisfy local needs. Cutting off or damaging Dagestan's energy infrastructure would be disastrous for the republic, its neighbors, and Russia spurring a security, health, and food crisis.
Dagestan is also a hotbed for terrorism due to the republic's terrain. It is mountainous and forested providing easy escape routes for terrorists. Poorly demarcated borders allow terrorists to slip in and out making the resistance much harder to quell.
This happened during the 1990s, when the Chechens launched their independence wars against the Kremlin. Dagestan was first linked to the Chechen independence movement during the Second Chechen War. Dagestanis fought with the Chechens to fight off the Russians. Shamil Basayev, a famous guerilla fighter from the First Chechen War commanded the rebel forces to invade Dagestan in August and September of 1999 during the Second Chechen War. This was done to fuse the two republics using Islam as the unifying factor and to set up an Islamic state in the North Caucasus Later on, Basayev was killed, and no state emerged. Since then skirmishes within Dagestan have erupted mirroring the situation in neighboring republics. Kidnappings, small military campaigns and counter terrorism operations are continuously being conducted.
In the last two years as Chechnya has stabilized due to Kadyrov, militants have returned to Dagestan and the situation has become worse. A violent trend has been established over a few months. Most recently on April 14, 2009 three militants were killed in Khasavyurt. One of the militants was a Turkish citizen who was an emissary for Al-Qaeda. He was known to be funding rebels in both Chechnya and in Dagestan. They were killed by the FSB after they opened fire on traffic police wanting to search their vehicle. On April 13, 2009 two police officers were shot dead in Makhachkala around. A week before, on April 5, unidentified militants shot dead a police officer and his two brothers. The bodies were discovered in a forest which a terrorist bunker nearby. Explosive materials and extremist literature were also discovered. Two weeks prior on March 23, 17 were fatally shot in Southern Dagestan. Five were police officers, the rest militants. Shootouts between rebels and law enforcement have become more frequent as the area borders Georgia and Azerbaijan. On March 19, a three-hour shootout left four gunmen dead.
From this string of events, it is not a surprise that the Russian Federation is conducting anti-terrorism and anti-extremist campaigns in the region. The republic's President, Mukhu Aliev, is a Kremlin puppet whose corruption is visible. He pushed out the chief tax inspector, Vladimir Radchenko who will never work in Dagestan again according to Aliev. Power struggles such as this do not help the situation. Criminal gangs, corrupt officials, and vying clans compound the chaos created by rebels. The republic's government (led by Aliev) is expected to provide peace in exchange for power. When that fails, Russian forces move in.
According to the Jamestown Foundation, the Russian army along with the FSB, and Dagestan's Interior Ministry have launched operations in Dagestan's Karabudakhkentsky district near the village, Kakashura located near the Caspian Sea. To promote the campaign, Soviet style propaganda was used to announce the operation, stating citizens were concerned for their safety. The FSB and the Russian army conducted a similar operation in the village of Gimri, a rural area where militants could easily hide. The military incursion is expected to last longer. Within the Karabudakhkentsky district, high concentrations of Salafis are present. The second day of the campaign, helicopters patrolled pummeling villages hoping to strike militant hideouts. No invasion of hideouts was conducted. By the third day (March 21), militants were reported dead, but there were conflicting reports of casualties, clearly stating no victor. The campaign to eliminate rebels from the region will be ongoing as the Salafi group is one of seven known groups operating in the area.
Dagestan has been picked as the new outpost for rebels as Chechnya has seemingly become restive. Much of the violence from Chechnya has been pushed out and has spilled over into Ingushetia and Dagestan. This could be due to Russia's preoccupation with the United States, NATO, and its own domestic economic situation.
The Russian government is the backbone to Dagestan's economy. But Kremlin has its own financial problems now. If Dagestan loses its economic support, the republic will crumble. Playing off of anti-Russian sentiments and appealing to locals' hopelessness and desperation, the rebels have found an unlimited supply of potential recruits. Russia has become the scapegoat. The resistance movements in the North Caucasus are reliant upon Russia's actions that are viewed as colonial, imperial, anti-Islam, and anti-independence.
To maintain a friendly image in Dagestan, and in the North Caucasus respectively, the Russian government must continue budget support, keep troops on the ground, and checkpoints open. The Russians failed in Chechnya as they went immediately into force. The same could happen with Dagestan if the local government crumbles. Force is the only option that Russia has.
A large-scale invasion or military attack in Dagestan is highly unlikely and it will only be prompted by a declaration of sovereignty on behalf of the Dagestan republic or mass casualties committed by rebels against Russians forces. President Aliev would be committing political suicide if he declared independence, but he won't as he is and was hand-picked by the Kremlin. The situation has not reached the level of Chechnya. It is too early to tell if it will.
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