India's parliamentary elections--in which votes will be counted on May 16 after a month-long poll--may confuse rather than clarify the country's politics. Small regional and caste-based parties may gain ground at the expense of the two biggest parties, the Congress Party and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). A hung Parliament looks certain, so post-election negotiations (and purchases of support) will determine who rules India.
Most opinion polls suggest that the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance will win around 200 seats, with the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance not far behind. Other parties--some of whom have formed a Third Front--could win up to 150 seats. Opinion polls are often wrong, but all suggest that no alliance will come close to winning a majority (272 seats in a House of 573).
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