JUST more than a week ago the Pacific Islands Forum, the region's most important body, comprising the heads of government of 14 Pacific Island countries as well as Australia and New Zealand, ejected Fiji from the regional association.
Veteran Pacific analyst Graeme Dobell has correctly pointed out that the forum will do itself damage by casting out one of its founding states. With Papua New Guinea, Fiji is at the economic and security heart of the region. It is central to the Pacific's transport and communications networks and hosts more than half of the most important regional bodies, including the region's main university.
It's not clear what retaliation the Fiji interim Government will take against being cut out of the regional system. It's possible Frank Bainimarama may expel the forum secretariat, which is located in Suva. If the secretariat is moved to Samoa, Vanuatu or Solomon Islands, it will probably be at Australia's expense.
It's hard to see how suspending Fiji from the forum will cause Bainimarama to change his mind on holding an election this year. Weakening the forum simply adds lustre to the Melanesian Spearhead Group, whose backer is China. Australia isn't part of this regional group.
It's clear that Australia's sticks and no carrots approach since December 2006 hasn't worked. Bainimarama has said that Fiji won't bow to external pressures such as our strict travel bans or Australia's mean-spirited decision to cut Fiji from our Pacific agricultural guest-worker scheme. Ejecting Fiji from the forum just extends our failed approach. It's in a similar vein to the crusade that Australia and NZ have led to ensure that Fiji can't supply peacekeepers to the UN.
The UN has contributions to peacekeeping from 100 member countries with 113,000 forces deployed. Banning Fiji from international peacekeeping missions will result in unemployed Fiji military personnel with guns roaming the streets at home.
The remittances the Fiji military provide from UN deployments are critical to alleviating poverty for many military families in Fiji. It's hard to see how this measure would change Bainimarama's mind anyway.
Fiji's economy is suffering badly, despite help from Fiji's new Chinese and Indian friends. Trade sanctions would hurt only the innocent. It's critical that there be a compromise that embodies the key change of open electorates and no affirmative action quotas while further constitutional reform is pursued.
For this to happen it will be necessary to get an outside mediator. Australia or NZ should not be involved in such an exercise.
The head of the interim Government appears somewhat besotted with the British royal family. Bainimarama recently told Graham Davis in an interview for The Australian: "I'm still loyal to the Queen, many people in Fiji are", and indicated he would ask the Queen to resume her position as head of state. The country declared itself a republic during the first coups of 1987.
A member of the royal family with British Foreign and Commonwealth Office support therefore may make a suitable mediator. Prince Andrew, for example, has had a career as a naval officer and may have some rapport with Bainimarama, who was the former chief of Fiji's navy. Another possibility as a third-party mediator is an emissary of Barack Obama. Bill Clinton would be a stand-out choice.
A fresh mediation effort should be tried, even if the chances of it working are slim. The alternative is that everyone in Fiji stews and suffers. More pressure from Australia even may lead to financial collapse or a rival army faction moving in. Unless the new power receives substantial outside help, Fiji could be in more trouble. What's more, this new power may be even more unpalatable to Australia than the present one.
We don't want any possibility to arise of direct intervention such as the 5 1/2-year regional assistance mission to Solomon Islands that has already cost Australia more than $1 billion.
Anthony Bergin is author of Democracy Postponed: Fiji and Australian Policy Choices and director of research programs at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute in Canberra.
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