Nepal's fragile democracy has been plunged into renewed crisis by the resignation on Monday of the Maoist prime minister, Pushpa Kamal Dahal. Opposition parties have responded positively to the prime minister's resignation, which they see as ending a protracted power struggle between the Maoist-led government and the conservative Nepal Army, but the collapse of the government does not augur well for political stability.
Admittedly, events could have turned out worse. On Sunday, a military coup had appeared possible when Mr. Dahal, who is also known as Prachanda, dismissed the army chief of staff for disregarding the government's orders. Gen. Rookmangud Katawal had refused to step down, and had convened a council of the army’s senior generals at his official residence in the capital, Kathmandu. The president, Ram Baran Yadav, who is also the army’s commander-in-chief, overruled Gen. Katawal’s dismissal. Prachanda responded by resigning—a move that may have prevented a military power-grab.
But the resignation of the government—less than a year after it took office—is no solution to the country’s political crisis. The main opposition Nepali Congress does not have sufficient seats in the constituent assembly to form a government, even with the support of the two former Maoist allies that pulled out of the government in protest against Gen. Katawal’s dismissal. Congress has said that it will not attempt to lead the next government, but that it will support one of the Maosits' former allies, the Communist Party of Nepal (United Marxist-Leninist), or CPN (UML), as it seeks to assemble a coalition to rule the divided country.
To stand any chance of success, the CPN (UML) must win the support of the main party of the ethnic-Madeshi people from the restive southern Terai plains, the Madeshi People’s Rights Forum, the largest party in the assembly after the Maoists, Congress and the CPN (UML). Even then a CPN (UML)-led coalition government would depend on the votes of most of the 20-plus other parties represented in the assembly to achieve a majority. With the Maoists in opposition, Nepal appears to be heading for a period of weak government.
Weak government is the last thing the country needs. Announcing his resignation in a televised address, Prachanda described President Yadav’s intervention as unconstitutional, but said that the Maoists remained committed to the November 2006 peace agreement which ended the country's 10-year civil war. The Maoists' estimated 19,000 former fighters would, he added, remain in the U.N.-supervised camps where they have been confined since the peace agreement. But the Maoists’ commitment to parliamentary democracy cannot but have been tested by what they see as a conspiracy by the Indian-backed established elites to subvert the will of an elected government. Already, Prachanda has called for a campaign of street protests. On Tuesday, thousands of demonstrators, led by the Maoists' violent youth wing, the Young Communist League, took to the streets of Kathmandu. The Maoists are more than capable of destabilizing the country without calling out their former fighters.
Since the constituent assembly abolished the 240-year-old monarchy and proclaimed a republic in May 2008, the country has been beset by difficulties. The most divisive issue has been the proposed integration of former rebel fighters into the ranks of the national army, a key provision of the 2006 peace agreement, but one which has been resisted by Gen. Katawal and others as being damaging to the esprit de corps.
Early this year, Gen. Katawal began to recruit 2,800 soldiers, a move that the Maoist defense minister, Ram Bahadur Thapa, said violated the terms of the peace agreement, which imposed a moratorium on recruitment. The army said that it was simply filling vacant posts. Relations deteriorated further when the defense ministry refused a routine request by the army to extend the terms eight brigadier-generals. Gen. Katawal told the generals to remain in their posts. Events took a farcical turn in early May when the army withdrew its team from the national games in protest after the Maoists said that they would be sending their own athletes.
According to the opposition, the attempt to dismiss the army chief was a plot by the Maoists to seize control of the military by replacing Gen. Katawal with his second-in-command, Lt.-Gen. Kul Bahadur Khadka. Gen. Khadka is seen as a supporter of admitting former rebel fighters into the ranks of the national army. Gen. Khadka is due to retire before Gen. Katawal’s term ends in August, so was not due to have been promoted to the post of army chief, which would instead have been filled by Lieutenant Gen. Chhatra Man Singh Gurung, the third-in-command. But, in the order dismissing Gen. Katawal, the Maoists attempted to install Gen. Khadka as head of the army.
President Yadav has told the parties to form a new government by Saturday. As well as preserving the peace agreement with the Maoists, the next government will have to lead the assembly in achieving a consensus and writing a new constitution, while ending escalating separatist violence in the Terai plains. At least when they were in power the Maoists had a stake in preserving the political settlement and making democratic government work. In opposition they have little incentive to do either. Already, the Maoists have said they will prevent the assembly from functioning until the president apologizes and reverses his decision. Tuesday's protests in Kathmandu will not be the last as the Maoists attempt to wrestle back political power from their opponents.
Nicholas Owen, a former freelance journalist in Kathmandu, is presently employed as a political analyst of Asian countries. His stories have appeared in the Economist Intelligence Unit and the International Herald Tribune, among other publications.
Comment:
Facing political infighting and a brutal insurrection, Nepal is in danger of becoming a failed state.
It was an indication of dramatically changed times when Nepal's lower house of parliament convened on April 27, almost four years after it had been dissolved.
Nepal's Wounded Democracy
by Meenakshi Ganguly Elections bring a historic opportunity for lasting peace.
Posted May 7, 2009
Nepal's fragile democracy has been plunged into renewed crisis by the resignation on Monday of the Maoist prime minister, Pushpa Kamal Dahal. Opposition parties have responded positively to the prime minister's resignation, which they see as ending a protracted power struggle between the Maoist-led government and the conservative Nepal Army, but the collapse of the government does not augur well for political stability.
Admittedly, events could have turned out worse. On Sunday, a military coup had appeared possible when Mr. Dahal, who is also known as Prachanda, dismissed the army chief of staff for disregarding the government's orders. Gen. Rookmangud Katawal had refused to step down, and had convened a council of the army’s senior generals at his official residence in the capital, Kathmandu. The president, Ram Baran Yadav, who is also the army’s commander-in-chief, overruled Gen. Katawal’s dismissal. Prachanda responded by resigning—a move that may have prevented a military power-grab.
But the resignation of the government—less than a year after it took office—is no solution to the country’s political crisis. The main opposition Nepali Congress does not have sufficient seats in the constituent assembly to form a government, even with the support of the two former Maoist allies that pulled out of the government in protest against Gen. Katawal’s dismissal. Congress has said that it will not attempt to lead the next government, but that it will support one of the Maosits' former allies, the Communist Party of Nepal (United Marxist-Leninist), or CPN (UML), as it seeks to assemble a coalition to rule the divided country.
To stand any chance of success, the CPN (UML) must win the support of the main party of the ethnic-Madeshi people from the restive southern Terai plains, the Madeshi People’s Rights Forum, the largest party in the assembly after the Maoists, Congress and the CPN (UML). Even then a CPN (UML)-led coalition government would depend on the votes of most of the 20-plus other parties represented in the assembly to achieve a majority. With the Maoists in opposition, Nepal appears to be heading for a period of weak government.
Weak government is the last thing the country needs. Announcing his resignation in a televised address, Prachanda described President Yadav’s intervention as unconstitutional, but said that the Maoists remained committed to the November 2006 peace agreement which ended the country's 10-year civil war. The Maoists' estimated 19,000 former fighters would, he added, remain in the U.N.-supervised camps where they have been confined since the peace agreement. But the Maoists’ commitment to parliamentary democracy cannot but have been tested by what they see as a conspiracy by the Indian-backed established elites to subvert the will of an elected government. Already, Prachanda has called for a campaign of street protests. On Tuesday, thousands of demonstrators, led by the Maoists' violent youth wing, the Young Communist League, took to the streets of Kathmandu. The Maoists are more than capable of destabilizing the country without calling out their former fighters.
Since the constituent assembly abolished the 240-year-old monarchy and proclaimed a republic in May 2008, the country has been beset by difficulties. The most divisive issue has been the proposed integration of former rebel fighters into the ranks of the national army, a key provision of the 2006 peace agreement, but one which has been resisted by Gen. Katawal and others as being damaging to the esprit de corps.
Early this year, Gen. Katawal began to recruit 2,800 soldiers, a move that the Maoist defense minister, Ram Bahadur Thapa, said violated the terms of the peace agreement, which imposed a moratorium on recruitment. The army said that it was simply filling vacant posts. Relations deteriorated further when the defense ministry refused a routine request by the army to extend the terms eight brigadier-generals. Gen. Katawal told the generals to remain in their posts. Events took a farcical turn in early May when the army withdrew its team from the national games in protest after the Maoists said that they would be sending their own athletes.
According to the opposition, the attempt to dismiss the army chief was a plot by the Maoists to seize control of the military by replacing Gen. Katawal with his second-in-command, Lt.-Gen. Kul Bahadur Khadka. Gen. Khadka is seen as a supporter of admitting former rebel fighters into the ranks of the national army. Gen. Khadka is due to retire before Gen. Katawal’s term ends in August, so was not due to have been promoted to the post of army chief, which would instead have been filled by Lieutenant Gen. Chhatra Man Singh Gurung, the third-in-command. But, in the order dismissing Gen. Katawal, the Maoists attempted to install Gen. Khadka as head of the army.
President Yadav has told the parties to form a new government by Saturday. As well as preserving the peace agreement with the Maoists, the next government will have to lead the assembly in achieving a consensus and writing a new constitution, while ending escalating separatist violence in the Terai plains. At least when they were in power the Maoists had a stake in preserving the political settlement and making democratic government work. In opposition they have little incentive to do either. Already, the Maoists have said they will prevent the assembly from functioning until the president apologizes and reverses his decision. Tuesday's protests in Kathmandu will not be the last as the Maoists attempt to wrestle back political power from their opponents.
Nicholas Owen, a former freelance journalist in Kathmandu, is presently employed as a political analyst of Asian countries. His stories have appeared in the Economist Intelligence Unit and the International Herald Tribune, among other publications.
Comment:
Facing political infighting and a brutal insurrection, Nepal is in danger of becoming a failed state.
It was an indication of dramatically changed times when Nepal's lower house of parliament convened on April 27, almost four years after it had been dissolved.
Nepal's Wounded Democracy
by Meenakshi Ganguly Elections bring a historic opportunity for lasting peace.
Posted May 7, 2009
Nepal's fragile democracy has been plunged into renewed crisis by the resignation on Monday of the Maoist prime minister, Pushpa Kamal Dahal. Opposition parties have responded positively to the prime minister's resignation, which they see as ending a protracted power struggle between the Maoist-led government and the conservative Nepal Army, but the collapse of the government does not augur well for political stability.
Admittedly, events could have turned out worse. On Sunday, a military coup had appeared possible when Mr. Dahal, who is also known as Prachanda, dismissed the army chief of staff for disregarding the government's orders. Gen. Rookmangud Katawal had refused to step down, and had convened a council of the army’s senior generals at his official residence in the capital, Kathmandu. The president, Ram Baran Yadav, who is also the army’s commander-in-chief, overruled Gen. Katawal’s dismissal. Prachanda responded by resigning—a move that may have prevented a military power-grab.
But the resignation of the government—less than a year after it took office—is no solution to the country’s political crisis. The main opposition Nepali Congress does not have sufficient seats in the constituent assembly to form a government, even with the support of the two former Maoist allies that pulled out of the government in protest against Gen. Katawal’s dismissal. Congress has said that it will not attempt to lead the next government, but that it will support one of the Maosits' former allies, the Communist Party of Nepal (United Marxist-Leninist), or CPN (UML), as it seeks to assemble a coalition to rule the divided country.
To stand any chance of success, the CPN (UML) must win the support of the main party of the ethnic-Madeshi people from the restive southern Terai plains, the Madeshi People’s Rights Forum, the largest party in the assembly after the Maoists, Congress and the CPN (UML). Even then a CPN (UML)-led coalition government would depend on the votes of most of the 20-plus other parties represented in the assembly to achieve a majority. With the Maoists in opposition, Nepal appears to be heading for a period of weak government.
Weak government is the last thing the country needs. Announcing his resignation in a televised address, Prachanda described President Yadav’s intervention as unconstitutional, but said that the Maoists remained committed to the November 2006 peace agreement which ended the country's 10-year civil war. The Maoists' estimated 19,000 former fighters would, he added, remain in the U.N.-supervised camps where they have been confined since the peace agreement. But the Maoists’ commitment to parliamentary democracy cannot but have been tested by what they see as a conspiracy by the Indian-backed established elites to subvert the will of an elected government. Already, Prachanda has called for a campaign of street protests. On Tuesday, thousands of demonstrators, led by the Maoists' violent youth wing, the Young Communist League, took to the streets of Kathmandu. The Maoists are more than capable of destabilizing the country without calling out their former fighters.
Since the constituent assembly abolished the 240-year-old monarchy and proclaimed a republic in May 2008, the country has been beset by difficulties. The most divisive issue has been the proposed integration of former rebel fighters into the ranks of the national army, a key provision of the 2006 peace agreement, but one which has been resisted by Gen. Katawal and others as being damaging to the esprit de corps.
Early this year, Gen. Katawal began to recruit 2,800 soldiers, a move that the Maoist defense minister, Ram Bahadur Thapa, said violated the terms of the peace agreement, which imposed a moratorium on recruitment. The army said that it was simply filling vacant posts. Relations deteriorated further when the defense ministry refused a routine request by the army to extend the terms eight brigadier-generals. Gen. Katawal told the generals to remain in their posts. Events took a farcical turn in early May when the army withdrew its team from the national games in protest after the Maoists said that they would be sending their own athletes.
According to the opposition, the attempt to dismiss the army chief was a plot by the Maoists to seize control of the military by replacing Gen. Katawal with his second-in-command, Lt.-Gen. Kul Bahadur Khadka. Gen. Khadka is seen as a supporter of admitting former rebel fighters into the ranks of the national army. Gen. Khadka is due to retire before Gen. Katawal’s term ends in August, so was not due to have been promoted to the post of army chief, which would instead have been filled by Lieutenant Gen. Chhatra Man Singh Gurung, the third-in-command. But, in the order dismissing Gen. Katawal, the Maoists attempted to install Gen. Khadka as head of the army.
President Yadav has told the parties to form a new government by Saturday. As well as preserving the peace agreement with the Maoists, the next government will have to lead the assembly in achieving a consensus and writing a new constitution, while ending escalating separatist violence in the Terai plains. At least when they were in power the Maoists had a stake in preserving the political settlement and making democratic government work. In opposition they have little incentive to do either. Already, the Maoists have said they will prevent the assembly from functioning until the president apologizes and reverses his decision. Tuesday's protests in Kathmandu will not be the last as the Maoists attempt to wrestle back political power from their opponents.
Nicholas Owen, a former freelance journalist in Kathmandu, is presently employed as a political analyst of Asian countries. His stories have appeared in the Economist Intelligence Unit and the International Herald Tribune, among other publications.
Comment:
Facing political infighting and a brutal insurrection, Nepal is in danger of becoming a failed state.
It was an indication of dramatically changed times when Nepal's lower house of parliament convened on April 27, almost four years after it had been dissolved.
Nepal's Wounded Democracy
by Meenakshi Ganguly Elections bring a historic opportunity for lasting peace.
Posted May 7, 2009
Nepal's fragile democracy has been plunged into renewed crisis by the resignation on Monday of the Maoist prime minister, Pushpa Kamal Dahal. Opposition parties have responded positively to the prime minister's resignation, which they see as ending a protracted power struggle between the Maoist-led government and the conservative Nepal Army, but the collapse of the government does not augur well for political stability.
Admittedly, events could have turned out worse. On Sunday, a military coup had appeared possible when Mr. Dahal, who is also known as Prachanda, dismissed the army chief of staff for disregarding the government's orders. Gen. Rookmangud Katawal had refused to step down, and had convened a council of the army’s senior generals at his official residence in the capital, Kathmandu. The president, Ram Baran Yadav, who is also the army’s commander-in-chief, overruled Gen. Katawal’s dismissal. Prachanda responded by resigning—a move that may have prevented a military power-grab.
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