There's a lot riding on the US president's masterplan for peace in the Middle East. Expectations are high, but will it deliver?
King Abdullah of Jordan's urgent warnings on the prospects for war and peace in the Middle East have further underscored the critical nature of next Monday's White House meeting between Barack Obama and Binyamin Netanyahu, Israel's prime minister. It is hard to overstate the importance of this encounter "“ some would say showdown "“ for both the men involved and for a region torn by over half-a-century of discord and blood.
A great deal of Obama's political capital, and more of his personal credibility, are on the line. Having made a solution to the Arab-Israeli conflict a key theme of his presidency, the US leader has a brief window of opportunity to convince a sceptical world he can deliver. Separate meetings with Abdullah and Hosni Mubarak, Egypt's president, are also scheduled. The idea is to thrash out a new framework plan for peace, a revamped road map that, this time around, leads to an agreed destination.
Abdullah suggested the Obama masterplan will embrace and expand the Arab peace initiative, first authored by the Saudis in 2002, by offering prospective diplomatic recognition of Israel by all Muslim countries in return for an end to Israeli settlement activity and withdrawal from occupied Palestinian territories. Inducements may be dangled on all sides, such as cash aid for the Palestinians and visas for Israelis.
If all goes well, Obama will unveil his Middle Eastern "New Deal" in Cairo on 4 June. His speech is already being previewed as a historic manifesto for change in relations between the Islamic world and the west. If it contains substantive proposals for ending the Arab-Israeli conflict, it might justify that billing.
These are big "ifs", as Abdullah noted in his interview with the Times. "The critical juncture will be what comes out of the Obama-Netanyahu meeting," he said. "If there is procrastination by Israel on the two-state solution or there is no clear American vision for how this is going to play out in 2009, then all the tremendous credibility that Obama has worldwide and in this region will evaporate overnight."
The stakes are sky-high for Netanyahu, too, and the rightwing Likud leader is already manoeuvring for elbow room. A tough speech by Joe Biden, the American vice-president, insisting Israel must start lifting physical and economic barriers in the West Bank and Gaza and prepare to compromise on so-called final status issues was a signal that Obama means business.
Another uncomfortable augury was the red carpet treatment afforded Shimon Peres, Israel's president and long-time peace process supporter, when he visited the White House last week. For Bibi, it was bad enough the dove-ish Peres got into the Oval office ahead of him. Worse still was the enthusiasm shown for Israel's senior statesman by Obama and influential aides such as Rahm Emanuel and David Axelrod. The atmosphere may be a little tenser next week.
Netanyahu has been sending signals of his own. One red line is the Golan Heights; he says he won't hand them back to Syria. He also refuses to contemplate partitioning Jerusalem into separate Jewish and Palestinian capitals. And if they are ever to have their own sovereign state, he says, Palestinians must accept his definition of Israel as a Jewish state in perpetuity.
At the same time, the Israeli leader, influenced perhaps by Quartet envoy Tony Blair, has been telling colleagues that Israel must do more to assist Palestinian economic development, education and and the Palestinian Authority's security forces. He repeated that message at Sunday's cabinet meeting. He also stresses he is ready to talk peace without preconditions, though in reality plenty of preconditions exist.
Netanyahu is meanwhile holding his own face-to-face consultations with Mubarak and Abdullah this week; and has sent Avigdor Lieberman, his foreign minister, to London to explain Israel's approach to David Miliband, the foreign secretary. He knows full well an informal alliance of the Arab and Muslim worlds, the EU, the UN, Russia and global public opinion is arrayed against him. His immediate aim is to ensure he is not steamrollered by the diplomatic juggernaut Obama is bolting together.
In Israel itself, some analysts suggest a sulky stubbornness, favouring peace but resistant to change, will reinforce Netanyahu's go-slow position. A recent poll cited by Ha'aretz columnist Akiva Eldar found that 53% of Israelis viewed the West Bank as liberated territory and only a minority regarded it as occupied. "Like a spoiled child, Israel is in no rush to willingly surrender real estate it holds and has settled for decades," Eldar wrote. "Even though the threat of Israel becoming a binational or apartheid state increases annually, such pressure is insufficient to make it pull out of the territories."
All the same, Eldar noted, the game may soon be up. "The repertoire of pressure available to the president of the United States is extensive and multi-faceted. It looks like we will have to learn about it the hard way.
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