Today Barack Obama will begin a diplomatic relationship that is likely to be as complex, as vexing and possibly as troubled as any he will have during the first years of his presidency. His meeting at the White House with Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu won't produce the blow-up some expect; a smooth veneer of harmony is more likely. Yet it will quietly inaugurate a contest of wills between two very different politicians -- one that could help determine whether the Middle East shifts toward an era of negotiation and detente, or of deepening conflict.
Obama's strategy aims at the former. He hopes to draw Iran into negotiations over its nuclear program while defusing the polarization between an Iranian-led bloc, including Syria, Hamas and Hezbollah, and Sunni Arab states such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia. Israeli-Arab peace talks are central to this vision. By moving toward a settlement with Syria, Lebanon and the Palestinians, Israel could coax some of Tehran's allies to switch sides and isolate hard-core extremists.
Netanyahu, in contrast, sees Iran as a latter-day Nazi Germany with which negotiation is foolish and compromise unthinkable. He campaigned on promises to destroy the Hamas movement in Gaza and to reject the return of the Golan Heights to Syria. He also refuses to publicly accept the goal of a Palestinian state -- a stance he has not changed despite public proddings from Washington.
Today that divide can be papered over. Netanyahu could promise to explore negotiations with both Palestinians and Arabs, while Obama sidesteps Netanyahu's silence on Palestinian statehood; Israel could acquiesce in U.S. attempts at outreach to Tehran with the understanding that a campaign for tough new sanctions will begin if there are no results by the fall. But these facts will remain: For Obama, Netanyahu will be an obstacle rather than an ally in any push for Middle East peace; for Netanyahu, Obama stands in the way of the forceful action he believes is urgently necessary to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.
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