A friend called from Lahore, Pakistan, and asked if I could put up his family in my home in the Washington suburbs. "Most welcome!" I said. "When are you all coming?" "As soon as Pakistan begins to collapse!" replied Abdul Wahid Qureshi, a retired college professor. Qureshi was responding facetiously to David Kilcullen's forecast that Pakistan would "collapse" within "one to six months" from a financial crisis and an "extremist takeover" of its institutions. Kilcullen served as the top adviser to General David Petraeus, chief of the US Central Command.

