Democratic experiences in the Middle East are few and far between. Where credible elections do take place they tend to produce undesirable outcomes for many in the west, as voters lean towards Islamist parties.
For the past four years, Lebanon, a rare if imperfect democracy, has been an exception. Its Cedar revolution of 2005 ushered in a pro-western parliamentary majority that also put an end to Syrian dominance.
The romanticism of that popular uprising – sparked by fury over the killing of Rafiq Hariri, the former billionaire prime minister – fizzled out in the years that followed as Lebanon was convulsed by repeated political crises. On June 7, the Lebanese cast their votes in parliamentary elections that could mark a turning point, tilting the balance of power further from the March 14 alliance (known after the date of its biggest rally in 2005) and in favour of the opposition and its most powerful member, the Shia group Hizbollah.
The race is too close to call and one likely outcome is that neither the March 14 alliance of parties nor the opposition win an outright majority, forcing them to share power with independent candidates in a national unity government. But the opposition, comprised of Hizbollah and other Shia and Christian allies, is putting up a determined fight. Lebanon’s supporters – the US in the lead – should be prepared for a potential victory.
Though Lebanon is a country of only 4m people, its complex sectarian make-up and history of civil strife have been a constant source of headaches for the international community. In recent weeks both Hillary Clinton, the US secretary of state, and Joe Biden, the US vice-president, have made stops in Beirut. By meeting candidates from the parliamentary majority and warning that the US attitude depends on the shape of the next government, Mr Biden did not conceal America’s preference.
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