Lebanon's Christians Key to Election

BEIRUT, Lebanon -- The outcome of this Sunday's legislative elections in Lebanon is both a certainty and a mystery. On the one hand, the main Sunni, Shiite and Druze parties are sure to win big in their regional strongholds. But the Christian vote is very much in play.

With the Sunnis and Druze firmly in the pro-Western "March 14" camp led by Sunni leader Saad Hariri, and the Shiites solidly behind the Syrian-backed "March 8" opposition bloc, the balance between them will be tilted by Maronite voters in their strongholds around Beirut and Mount Lebanon.

These will be split between Michel Aoun, the leader of the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) who sealed an alliance with Hezbollah in 2006, and the Kataeb and Lebanese Forces parties, who have sided with Hariri and Druze strongman Walid Joumblatt. As such, the Maronite Christians, who have for years fretted about their loss of power in a country they once dominated, hold the key to an election that observers predict will be close and likely to result in a coalition government.

"The real electoral race is really only happening in the Christian districts," says Paul Salem, the director of the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut. All the more so since a new electoral law has reduced the size of voting districts, rendering them more confessionally homogeneous. As a result, Christian politicians no longer need to forge alliances with Muslim parties to carry their districts.