Was it coincidence that Barack Obama scheduled his speech to Muslims last week on the eve of two closely fought regional elections – in Lebanon last Sunday and Iran this Friday? Now the "pro-western" coalition has won a narrow victory in Lebanon, some of the US president's supporters are suggesting his timing was indeed calculated.
If so, it was disingenuous. Under Lebanon's complex constitution the seats reserved for Sunnis and Shias were fixed, and Sunday's result turned on the way Christians rather than Muslims voted. A majority showed their disappointment and anger with the senior Christian politician, General Michel Aoun, who aligned himself with the Shias. After the usual weeks of negotiation Lebanon is likely to continue with a national unity government, and the real task for Obama is not to discourage the victorious Sunni-Druze-Christian alliance from inviting the Shias, and in particular Hezbollah, into their cabinet.
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