These are the broadest protests since the 1979 revolution. Ahmadinejad and Khamenei face a crisis of authority
Reports over the Âweekend that as many as 110 Iranian Âreformist politicians had been Âarrested late at night have given further Âcredence to suggestions that more is afoot than simple Âelection manipulation, and that the "landslide" election Âvictory of the country's incumbent president, Mahmoud ÂAhmadinejad, is a means to a broader end.
Indeed, a question from a hardline journalist at yesterday's press conference provided further evidence of a deeper agenda being pursued by Ahmadinejad with the apparent full support of the supreme leader, Ali Khamenei. The question addressed the letter sent last week by the hitherto powerful chairman of the Expediency Council, the former president Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, in which he had protested against the lies and slander hurled against him and his Âfamily by Ahmadinejad. What was Âcrucial in the question was the depiction of Rafsanjani as another Ayatollah Montazeri. Montazeri had been the heir apparent to Ayatollah Khomeini before serious political differences about the direction of the country resulted in Montazeri's banishment from the Âpolitical scene and house arrest for the better part of a decade.
The analogy was ominous, but does draw attention to the fact that this Âelection was never really about the two main candidates. It was about more fundamental issues of the direction of the Islamic Republic, and whether the republican elements "“ severely eroded since the first controversial Âelection of Ahmadinejad in 2005 "“ should be discarded altogether as an idea which has outlived its sell-by date, or whether it should actually be given a new lease of life.
Ahmadinejad's protestations about the free and fair nature of the recent election are, of course, par for the course. They are the standard rhetoric of the autocratic populist the world over, and the events since the results were announced belie the notion of a popular politician basking in the Âmandate of a euphoric electorate. Even if the disturbances could be put down to "troublemakers", it seems odd to move quickly to arrest opponents. Surely such an Âelection Âvictory and popular endorsement should be security enough?
This is about reshaping the country in a particular image. It can broadly be defined as conservative, Islamic and autocratic. Its footsoldiers are the Âseemingly pervasive pious poor who populate the Iranian countryside, inherently conservative and largely neglected. They are juxtaposed against a diffident and socially disconnected north Tehran elite. It is a nice dichotomy, and it makes for an easy explanation, but it doesn't bear serious scrutiny. Iran for example, is now overwhelmingly urban (70:30), which means that elections are fought and won in the cities. Moreover, many prominent reformists do not reside in north Tehran, in stark contrast to their political opponents. But it is also a fact that the last landslide elections were won by a reformist, Mohammad Khatami, who, much to the chagrin of AhmadinÂejad and his supporters, has remained a formidable and highly Âpopular figure to this day. In other words, the "pious poor" are not the natural and automatic constituents of the hardline conservatives.
This myth of the conservative silent majority is one that we are all meant to swallow. But it has proved a difficult fact to fully digest in light of Khatami's persistent popularity. So now we have an election, with an exceptionally high turnout, which has finally provided Ahmadinejad with more "votes" than Khatami ever achieved. With this Âapparent mandate Ahmadinejad and the supreme leader will try to move quickly to consolidate their position. All will apparently be normal, while behind the scenes opponents will be arrested and/or intimidated into submission. This is, after all, about domestic hegemony.
The trouble is that the legitimacy they crave has evaded them. Far from being a fait accompli, they face a Âcrisis of authority entirely of their own invention. The people being beaten on the streets are not members of the "north Tehran elite" who happen to be bored. People are angry; and people feel humiliated by a government and establishment that appear to have taken their submission for granted. This is a dangerous game to play, to raise expectations and to dash them with such reckless abandon. The protests are broader "“ socially and Âgeographically "“ than they have been since the revolution, but perhaps more important, they now include Âdisaffected members of the revolutionary elite. If these wounds are not healed quickly and judiciously, they may not heal at all.
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