Look forward with relish to the first week of October: a masterpiece of malignant timing. Up in Manchester, the Conservatives meet to confer and appear like a natural party of government. Over in Dublin, thanks to the spoils brought back from Brussels on Friday, the Irish vote once more on the Lisbon treaty they rejected last year. Current opinion poll balance: 56% yes, 28% no. Scope for turmoil in Cameron's backyard: 100%.
Did our would-be prime minister say that he'd hold a Lisbon referendum regardless, as his Guardian article on 25 May clearly indicates? Or that he'd only call such a vote if some other country "“ that is Ireland "“ hadn't ratified it by the moment he crossed Downing Street's threshold? What does he mean, in any case, by pledging "not to let the matter rest" (which sounds, among other things, like a bad night in the Midland Hotel)? The questions will come thick, fast and unavoidable; which automatically means that the Tories will start tearing at their entrails again.
To be sure, Europe is a morass of confusing detail, an affront to direct democracy in too many ways. And, of course, it often deserves the low turn-outs and opinions it currently attracts. (Choose another commission run by José Manuel Barroso "“ or one run by José Manuel Barroso?) You can write almost any convenient story you like across such a cluttered landscape. But let's also be clear that, when push comes to shove, when real decisions about real allegiances have to be made, then Europe's 27 varieties know where their best interests lie "“ with Croatia and Iceland gagging to make that 29.
The Irish, naturally enough, will be floridly pitied here as some kind of gallant victims flattened by bullying bureaucrats. That particular Brit blarney comes easy. But, in fact, in a roundabout way, they've played a good hand. If they indeed wanted binding guarantees about tax rates, neutrality and a continuing commissioner, they're getting them now. In short, in any normal arena, negotiating tactics have got them a better deal. What's so pitiful about that?
Perform a careful postmortem on last year's Irish rejection and you can see the root trouble, sure enough: a plain victory for the don't knows and don't understands, an easy opportunity to kick an unpopular government (as replicated many times over in this year's European parliament elections). Now, though, things are different. Now tough, post-crunch decisions have to be made "“ and it's UK plc that looks off the pace.
How much longer do we have to go on putting up with Bill Cash and co foaming on about federal plots (when they're not explaining some very odd domestic expenses, that is)? Why does nobody say that Ukip "“ if you look at Farage's farrago hard "“ is a panto out of season? Why on earth do we splutter on about foreign menaces in editorial lines dictated from New York by an Australian OAP? Loony tunes are all very well in their way, deluding ditties often encouraged by national governments to pretend nothing has changed: but it has, inevitably, in a greatly changed world.
"Banking regulation is most effectively enforced at European level in a globalised world", says the Irish Times, calmly. "Climate change can no longer be handled just by individual nation states when the EU adds so much value in world negotiations. The co-ordination of foreign policy on Iran, Burma or the Middle East will be improved ..." Of course. Pure pragmatism is guiding the Irish hand now, a serious response to serious events.
What can Cameron's Conservatives offer in contrast, as they don't let matters rest? Perhaps a Europe where "every country" must hold a referendum on future constitutional reforms, where "only elected representatives can make new law", where national vetoes come flooding back in all but trading affairs, where levels of tax and public spending are off-limits for Brussels, where all MEP and commission expenses should be published on the net.
That, in case you've missed it, was the Libertas platform for the Euro elections, one fought right across Europe by 600 candidates deploying €30m or so along the way. Just one was elected. Declan Ganley, Libertas's millionaire founder, leader and main man in Ireland's 2008 referendum vote, was humiliatingly rejected even on his own home turf, a punctured balloon. Only Sinn Féin battles on against Lisbon today as the Irish start to concentrate on facts, not fulminating fictions. Maybe Manchester should take Dublin's hint.
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