PRESIDENT Obama remains adamant about his policy of "engagement" with Iran. Yet he may soon find it hard to find a credible interlocutor in Tehran.
One can see the split down the middle of the ruling elite in all of the constituencies that together form the Khomeinist establishment.
The politically active segment of the Shiite clergy: Some senior mullahs (like Hussein-Ali Montazeri, Abdul-Karim Mousavi Ardebili and Yussef Sanei) side with the opposition. Others (such as Muhammad-Taqi Mesbah-Yazdi, Ahmad Jannati and Ahmad Khatami) support "Supreme Guide" Ali Khamenei, who has emerged as the regime's field commander.
The military: Defense Minister Gen. Mostafa Muhammad Najjar and Interior Minister Gen. Sadeq Mahsouli have sided with Khamenei's hard-line stance. Adm. Ali Shamkhani (a former defense minister) and Gen. Yahya Rahim Safavi (a former Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander) have indicated support for the opposition.
Unconfirmed reports say at least 17 mid-ranking Guard officers have been relieved of their posts. A senior commander, Gen. Ali Fazli, who led the elite "Master of the Martyrs' Division," has been "reassigned" after refusing to order troops to crush the demonstrators.
The position of Gen. Muhammad-Ali Jaafari, the Guard's commander, remains an enigma. Although promoted under President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, he has on occasion indicated unhappiness with the president's style, if not the substance of policies.
Gen. Hassan Firuzabadi, the armed forces chief of staff and the country's most senior military figure, has also tried to remain neutral, though some claim he sympathizes with the opposition.
Senior technocrats: Some, like former Foreign Minister Ali-Akbar Velayati, have rallied to the "supreme guide." Others, like nuclear-project head Gholam-Reza Aghazadeh and former Foreign Minister Kamaleddin Kharrazi, have indicated support for the opposition. Deputy Oil Minister Akbar Torkan was just dismissed because of suspected opposition sympathies.
Other influential figures such as Gen. Muhammad-Baqer Qalibaf, Tehran's mayor, and Ali Larijani, speaker of the Islamic Majlis, Iran's ersatz parliament, have tried to sit on the fence, making noises supporting the opposition one day and professing loyalty to the "supreme guide" the next.
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