'Now we have seen Iran's human face, a military attack is unthinkable,” the UK commentator Jonathan Freedland wrote last week. It is tempting to imagine that the very public death of Neda Agha Soltan may have saved her people from being bombed, but it is wishful thinking. The furore over Iran's election has imperilled prospects for a diplomatic engagement between Tehran and Washington, on both sides of the equation. And as long as the White House remains under pressure from hawks in Washington and Israel to force an end to Iran's uranium enrichment programme by any means possible, the weakening of prospects for diplomatic engagement raises the risk of war.
Barack Obama, to his credit, largely rebuffed calls to talk tough on Iran, recognising that empty rhetoric would only assuage feelings of impotence in the US while making things worse for the Iranian opposition. He maintained a realist's disciplined focus on the key issues in the US-Iranian relationship: those where he may be in a position to influence the outcome, unlike the fate of the Iranian opposition, about which he can do little. Regardless of who wins Iran's power struggle, Mr Obama will have to deal with them, first and foremost on the nuclear issue.
But the election fiasco has turned the political dynamics, both in Washington and in Tehran, against any short-term progress towards a diplomatic solution to the nuclear standoff. Iran's political crisis is not a contest between a cohesive regime and protesters on the streets as much as it is a profound schism inside all the political and clerical structures of the regime itself.While demonstrations may be suppressed, the power struggle within the regime is likely to continue for months, leaving the government weakened and divided in ways that militate against reaching any compromises on a nuclear issue that has been elevated to a matter of national pride. The streets may be quiet now, but it could be many months before the corridors of power in Tehran are sufficiently stabilised to allow for the regime to respond to Mr Obama's overtures. And of course, while the competing factions in Iran differ substantially in terms of how to handle relations with the West, they concur on the insistence that Iran continue enriching uranium.
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For Mr Obama, the political calculation has become even more difficult: it is no coincidence that those in Washington pushing hardest for him to be tough on Iran have long been the most hostile to a diplomatic solution to the nuclear issue, instead pushing for a punitive strategy that begins with escalated sanctions and, should those fail to deter Iran, ends with military strikes.At the weekend the US moved to block efforts at the G8 to impose new financial sanctions on Iran, to avoid further imperilling the prospects for diplomacy. If Mr Obama chooses to continue to pursue the diplomatic route it will inevitably involve compromise with Iran, particularly on the issue of uranium enrichment, which no faction in the Iranian power struggle has any intention of relinquishing. He will have to convince Washington, and its European allies and Israel, that the Iranians can be trusted (with verification) to limit their nuclear ambitions. That becomes a far tougher sell in light of the fact that the government in Iran, and even its Supreme Leader, are clearly no longer trusted not only by large sections of their own people, but even by many key figures in the regime itself.
Recognising the problems facing direct US-Iran engagement, Mr Obama is relying for progress on existing channels between Iran, the European Union and the permanent members of the UN Security Council. But in a not so subtle message to the Islamic Republic's political establishment, Iran's military chief of staff, Major-General Hassan Firouzabadi, has ruled out further talks with the European Union because of its “interference” in Iran's election process. Military officials don'
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document.write(''); Iran: on both sides the hawks circle, spoiling for a fight
Tony Karon
Last Updated: July 05. 2009 12:22AM UAE / July 4. 2009 8:22PM GMT
'Now we have seen Iran's human face, a military attack is unthinkable,” the UK commentator Jonathan Freedland wrote last week. It is tempting to imagine that the very public death of Neda Agha Soltan may have saved her people from being bombed, but it is wishful thinking. The furore over Iran's election has imperilled prospects for a diplomatic engagement between Tehran and Washington, on both sides of the equation. And as long as the White House remains under pressure from hawks in Washington and Israel to force an end to Iran's uranium enrichment programme by any means possible, the weakening of prospects for diplomatic engagement raises the risk of war.
Barack Obama, to his credit, largely rebuffed calls to talk tough on Iran, recognising that empty rhetoric would only assuage feelings of impotence in the US while making things worse for the Iranian opposition. He maintained a realist's disciplined focus on the key issues in the US-Iranian relationship: those where he may be in a position to influence the outcome, unlike the fate of the Iranian opposition, about which he can do little. Regardless of who wins Iran's power struggle, Mr Obama will have to deal with them, first and foremost on the nuclear issue.
But the election fiasco has turned the political dynamics, both in Washington and in Tehran, against any short-term progress towards a diplomatic solution to the nuclear standoff. Iran's political crisis is not a contest between a cohesive regime and protesters on the streets as much as it is a profound schism inside all the political and clerical structures of the regime itself.While demonstrations may be suppressed, the power struggle within the regime is likely to continue for months, leaving the government weakened and divided in ways that militate against reaching any compromises on a nuclear issue that has been elevated to a matter of national pride. The streets may be quiet now, but it could be many months before the corridors of power in Tehran are sufficiently stabilised to allow for the regime to respond to Mr Obama's overtures. And of course, while the competing factions in Iran differ substantially in terms of how to handle relations with the West, they concur on the insistence that Iran continue enriching uranium.
document.write('');
For Mr Obama, the political calculation has become even more difficult: it is no coincidence that those in Washington pushing hardest for him to be tough on Iran have long been the most hostile to a diplomatic solution to the nuclear issue, instead pushing for a punitive strategy that begins with escalated sanctions and, should those fail to deter Iran, ends with military strikes.At the weekend the US moved to block efforts at the G8 to impose new financial sanctions on Iran, to avoid further imperilling the prospects for diplomacy. If Mr Obama chooses to continue to pursue the diplomatic route it will inevitably involve compromise with Iran, particularly on the issue of uranium enrichment, which no faction in the Iranian power struggle has any intention of relinquishing. He will have to convince Washington, and its European allies and Israel, that the Iranians can be trusted (with verification) to limit their nuclear ambitions. That becomes a far tougher sell in light of the fact that the government in Iran, and even its Supreme Leader, are clearly no longer trusted not only by large sections of their own people, but even by many key figures in the regime itself.
Recognising the problems facing direct US-Iran engagement, Mr Obama is relying for progress on existing channels between Iran, the European Union and the permanent members of the UN Security Council. But in a not so subtle message to the Islamic Republic's political establishment, Iran's military chief of staff, Major-General Hassan Firouzabadi, has ruled out further talks with the European Union because of its “interference” in Iran's election process. Military officials don't typically venture their views on their government's diplomatic efforts; clearly the hawks are in the ascendancy in Iran too, and nuclear diplomacy is hardly a priority.
Even before the election debacle, the Obama administration found itself caught between those who advocated wholesale unconditional engagement with Iran and those who insisted that nuclear negotiations should be attached to escalating sanctions, on a ticking clock for Iranian compliance with western demands. Clearly the events of the past two weeks have strengthened the hand of the hawks who believe Iran must be pushed against the wall to force it to abandon uranium enrichment – and they're taking full advantage. Two weeks ago some congressional leaders most closely allied with Israel initiated legislation designed to prevent Iran from importing petrol, claiming solidarity with Iranian protesters as the motivation for passing legislation that was, in fact, designed to squeeze Iran into submission on the nuclear issue.
The chances of punitive measures achieving a diplomatic breakthrough on the nuclear issue are, if anything, even more remote as a result of the political crisis in Tehran. A new campaign of external pressure is more likely to offer a rallying point against which the different factions of the regime can unite, making concessions even less likely. And the extent to which Mr Obama buys into the idea that the “clock is ticking” on diplomatic efforts, the more likely he is to be pushed on to the road of escalating the punishments on Iran for defying western demands on its nuclear programme. And that's a road that could still end in war, even if neither side intends it.
Tony Karon is a New York-based analyst who blogs at rootlesscosmopolitan.comtonykaron@gmail.com
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