In retrospect, all the signs were there. But six months ago, back in July 2009, no one actually guessed that Peter Mandelson was about to become Labour's seventh prime minister. The suggestion had been doing the rounds at Westminster, of course, as one of those frivolous "what if games" – such as "what if John Smith had lived", or "what if Tony Blair had sacked Gordon Brown in 2001". That wasn't the same as predicting the events of the hot summer to come.
Long before the bond crisis of late August, and Alistair Darling's resignation, which followed hours later, Lord Mandelson (as he was still known then) had been teasing journalists with his ambitions. In an interview with the Financial Times, published in June on the day Brown attempted one last relaunch, he was in flirtatious mood. "I can well do without it," Mandelson said, asked if he wanted to lead Labour. "I'm trapped," he added of his peerage. "I believe it is for life ... of course, you could always change the law."
At private dinners he was rumoured to go further, speculating on whether it was constitutionally possible to rule Britain from the Lords and citing <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Cecil,_3rd_Marquess_of_Salisbury" title="Lord SaLord Salisbury as a precedent. But everyone took it as a bit of a tease: Peter being Peter, Labour's naughty uncle.
Looking back it is hard to understand why untested Alan Johnson was still seen as the obvious successor, or why indecisive David Miliband fancied his chances after twice ducking out of the challenge.
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