Three subjects dominate the news from Afghanistan these days: the Anglo-American offensive in Helmand province, the election planned for Aug. 20, and the constant attacks on schools. The three issues may seem unrelated. In fact, they're directly connected.
Start with the link between the election and the military offensive. This one is obvious: trying to secure the country ahead of next month's ballot is, according to British and American politicians, one of the main reasons the Coalition has stepped up its efforts in recent weeks.
Already the new push has resulted in more casualties"”but this spike in violence was bound to happen around the election regardless, even without a new assault by Coalition forces. Whether the operation is actually working is much less clear. So far the insurgents have not put up much of a fight, often melting back into the civilian population or slipping away to the hitherto relatively peaceful north and to the west of the country when the Coalition strikes.
The connection between the Helmand offensive and the attacks on schools is also clear. The insurgents are doing what guerrillas tend to do when they're confronted by overwhelming firepower: using whatever tools are available (in this case, improvised explosive devices), attacking easy targets, and hitting where it hurts most"”by killing the innocent.
As for the link between the attacks on schools and the upcoming election, this might seem less obvious, but the connection is just as direct. To understand it, you must first recognize that Afghanistan is not a simple postconflict situation; it is a country at war. On one side of the war are the Afghan government and the Coalition forces. On the other are the insurgents. Caught in the middle are the Afghan civilians.
The security situation today is deteriorating. The signs were everywhere on a trip I recently made to Afghanistan: in the extra sandbag barriers, the more frequent checkpoints, and the shrinking space for humanitarian organizations to operate. According to one security expert in Kabul, until a few years ago Afghanistan was a stable country with pockets of instability, whereas now it is an unstable country with pockets of stability. Even the Afghan Interior Ministry concedes as much. The color-coded maps it uses for briefings with foreign journalists show that broad swaths of the country, including Helmand, Kandahar, Nimruz, and Uruzgan provinces, are now firmly, partly, or intermittently under the control of the enemies of the Afghan government (not all of whom are hard-core insurgents; some are freelancers).
These opposition groups view all state employees, their offices, administrative buildings, health centers, and schools as symbols of the hated regime and of the invader"”and hence as legitimate targets. Elections are anathema to the guerrillas; a Taliban spokesman made this plain when he said in June that "we will double our efforts to sabotage the process of elections anywhere in the country." My Afghan colleagues at field offices of the International Rescue Committee report that insurgents now regularly leave "night letters" in public places warning communities of dire consequences if they dare take part in the upcoming vote.
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