India Just Now Playing the Great Game

The Central Asian question is no more the same as it was in the 1990s. No one speculates anymore that it was inevitable that the region would descend into anarchy. However, the problems endemic to a critical period of state formation linger. The transition economies were just about switching gear when the global economic crisis struck. Growth slackened. Foreign investment dwindled. Commodity prices crashed.

Regional cooperation has far from gained traction. There is widespread poverty and deprivation. The glass is half full. On the positive side can be noted an appreciable consolidation of national independence and sovereignty. The region's integration into the international system is already advanced. On the contrary, terrorism and religious terrorism continue to pose a threat to regional stability, which explains the raison d'etre of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). Equally, the SCO provides a forum of collective security that categorically rejects the ideology of "color revolution". The international community may have begun to grasp that political reality. (The SCO comprises China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.)

The turning point came with the abortive "Tulip Revolution" in Kyrgyzstan and the bloody uprising in Andizhan in Ferghana Valley in successive months in 2005 when the SCO moved into the driving seat to dispel the specter of "regime change". The result is there for all to see.

The Central Asian states have created much strategic space around them so that they can maneuver to their best advantage. They have made it obligatory for outside powers to negotiate with them - be it regarding military bases on lease, the price of natural gas, access routes to Afghanistan or partnerships with collective security bodies - rather than assume that the terms of engagement can be dictated from a position of strength.