Will the turmoil in Iran continue? Can Ayatollah Khamenei survive? Can the regime continue to call itself “Islamic”? Now that the supreme leader has shed his religious mantle and has trashed the constitution, the options are far narrower than you might think.
To gauge Iran’s future, it is essential to emphasize the obvious—the “Islamic” Republic of Iran was built on velayat-e-faqih, Ayatollah Khomeini’s concept of clerical oversight, which was intended to reverse Iran’s drift toward secularism under the shah.
Khomeini understood that for his imprint to be accepted, it would have to show respect for centuries of Iranian history and civilization and for the traditional Shiism practiced in Iran. This meant just rule, social and economic justice, the freedom to chose rulers, the obligation to fight oppression and the glorification of martyrdom among others—something that the shah had ignored to his own peril. Khomeini knew full well, from his own experience under the shah, that Iran, unlike other countries in the region, could not be governed by force for long. As such, Khomeini adopted a religious mantle and a new constitution to bolster his legitimacy. It looks like that same mantle has now become a noose around his successor’s neck.
As Khomeini was putting his views into constitutional practice, he reluctantly realized the need for a Guardian Council to vet candidates for all-important elected offices. His strong view was that the only criterion for candidacy should be total acceptance of Iran’s constitution, in particular of velayat-e-faqih. He preached against oppression, because he viewed it as the issue that most undermined the shah’s rule. And when it came to the selection and appointment of leaders to high office, he warned against the selection of military and security personnel. He cautioned that if this were allowed, the regime would collapse.
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