It became, for a while, a bit of a dirty word. But “decoupling” is in vogue again. The emerging world, and foremost Asia, has bounced back far more sharply from economic calamity than many developed economies. Fundamentals are now in better shape in these economies than ever before: fiscal balances are far healthier than in the west, while banking systems, stuffed with liquidity, appear ready to fuel another round of solid expansion.
Even the emerging shopper is beginning to pull his weight. Household spending growth in Asia is estimated at $170bn (€119bn, £102bn) this year, offsetting the plunge in spending in the US. Investment, too, is now considerably larger than in the west. As debate over “green shoots” rages in developed economies, emerging Asia is already nursing sturdy saplings.
But, for the region to remain on a path of sustained expansion, policy-makers need to heed the risks of asset bubbles. Flush liquidity and low interest rates are fuelling a boom in property and capital markets that may grow to unmanageable proportions. Eventually, such bubbles are bound to burst, killing growth, and any notion of decoupling along with it.
At the heart of the problem lies an outmoded central banking strategy. While growth has proven far more resilient in emerging Asia than many had anticipated, monetary policy remains hostage to conditions elsewhere. For decades, the region’s monetary officials have shadowed the Federal Reserve, adjusting interest rates roughly in line with the US central bank. This was justified: as growth depended on exports to western markets, monetary policy needed to conform to demand conditions overseas.
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