Sudan Needs a Regime Change

Sudan Needs a Regime Change

Support for the International Criminal Court is an article of near-religious faith on the political left, a central component of its "global governance" vision. In actuality, however, the ICC has been marginally effective, poorly administered, and its priorities diffuse -- much like its feckless, irrelevant sister, the International Court of Justice, and many other international bodies.

The ICC has avoided irrelevance in one key case -- Sudan. But it has actually made that desperate humanitarian crisis harder to resolve.

Specifically, the ICC indictments in July 2008 for Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir and other regime figures accused of war crimes and crimes against humanity have clearly had the opposite of the intended effect: Rather than pressure Bashir to stop the killing, they've strengthened his domestic position and hardened his already intractable line on "concessions" to inhabitants of Darfur.

This sad turn of events has provided virtually clinical proof of warnings by ICC critics that the court's "independence" was a defect, not a virtue -- leaving it disconnected from the legitimacy of representative government, and also from the global reality of power and conflict.

Yet it is impossible to act responsibly in Sudan without an understanding of power and conflict. Although recent attention has focused on Darfur, in the country's west, the ethnic and religious north-south conflict that preceded Darfur's suffering is also a candidate for the "genocide" label and remains unresolved. A 2005 agreement halted it, but postponed resolving the underlying issue of independence for the south.

Add in the separatist tendencies in the eastern region of Sudan (exacerbated by the Eritrean-Ethiopian conflict), and the country as a whole is a slow-motion disaster, with three potential breakaway regions.

Darfur's day-to-day level of violence may be lower than at the height of the slaughter by Khartoum-backed militias, but millions are still in displaced-persons camps -- their villages and livelihoods ruined; their security still uncertain.

Peacekeepers and outside political efforts, first from the African Union, then in a hybrid with the UN, have been ineffective, with "settlements" collapsing in the swirling, increasingly international conflict. The Security Council's recent one-year extension of the UN peacekeeping mandate didn't change these fundamental operational and diplomatic realities.

The Obama administration entered office seemingly determined to resolve the Sudan problem, but has instead suffered from public displays of internal disagreement.

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