For months, we've been hearing about deteriorating conditions in Afghanistan. Insurgent attacks are up. Coalition casualties are increasing. Poppy crops are flourishing. The Taliban is expanding its presence. Parts of the country are ungovernable. And where there is government, it's corrupt.
The public perception created by such reports is that Afghanistan is a disaster. The problem is that it's not a disaster. It's much, much worse.
And that's very bad news for Barack Obama. As a candidate, he argued that Afghanistan was the good war and that winning there was critical to U.S. national security. This fall, we will see whether he meant it. General Stanley McChrystal, the new U.S. commander in Afghanistan, is expected later this month to request an increase in troop levels there as part of a comprehensive new counterinsurgency strategy. Such an undertaking would be risky and expensive. Congressional Democrats, led by Nancy Pelosi, are already pressuring Obama to scale back U.S. involvement in Afghanistan, and they have considerable support among high-level national security aides in the White House and, perhaps more important, from the president's top political advisers.
The consequences of his decision--for the country and for the president--are huge.
"I have argued for years that we lack the resources to finish the job because of our commitment to Iraq. That's what the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff said earlier this month," Obama proclaimed in a major foreign policy address on July 15, 2008. "And that's why, as president, I will make the fight against al Qaeda and the Taliban the top priority that it should be. This is a war that we have to win."
In the early days of his administration, Obama seemed determined to make good on his pledge. Three weeks after his inauguration, he added 17,000 U.S. soldiers to the 36,000 already in the country. The White House had not yet completed its comprehensive Afghanistan policy review, and the fact that Obama was not waiting to send reinforcements gave heart to those advocating a more robust strategy for the troubled country. But there were also signs that Obama was sensitive to the potential political backlash he faced from the left. He made the move without fanfare, announcing it with a written statement rather than with a Rose Garden ceremony or a major speech.
On March 27, however, Obama announced a new strategy for Afghanistan that included another 4,000 troops and, importantly for a president who places so much emphasis on his rhetoric, a speech in which he unequivocally stated his commitment to defeating "the greatest threat to our people."
As president, my greatest responsibility is to protect the American people. We are not in Afghanistan to control that country or to dictate its future. We are in Afghanistan to confront a common enemy that threatens the United States, our friends and allies, and the people of Afghanistan and Pakistan who have suffered the most at the hands of violent extremists.
He punctuated his explanation with a blunt assessment of the consequences of failure. "The safety of people around the world is at stake."
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