One consequence of Iran's disputed presidential election is that President Obama's best-case scenario for dealing with the nuclear issue can now be dismissed. This envisaged a reformist victory and a new Iranian government willing to stop short of turning Iran into the world's 10th nuclear weapons state. The scale of opposition protest suggests that change will come, but it may arrive later rather than sooner. In the meantime we are faced with an insecure conservative regime that hopes to shore up its fragile position by exaggerating the external threat and making national security the defining issue of domestic politics. This is not a promising basis for compromise.
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