There is an old Russian anecdote that would shock most people in the West, but it reflects the mores here all too well.
A man comes home from work and no sooner does he step through the doorway than he wallops his wife with such a backhand that it sends her sprawling on the floor.
“Vanya, what was that for? I didn’t do anything wrong,” she asks.
“I know. If you really had done something wrong, I would have killed you!” he replies.
I was immediately reminded of this joke after hearing President Dmitry Medvedev’s video address posted on his blog Tuesday. Out of the blue, Medvedev struck out against President Viktor Yushchenko and announced that he would postpone sending Russia’s new ambassador to Kiev, a political demarche that is roughly equivalent to recalling an ambassador entirely.
Everybody was left scratching their heads and wondering, “What could have prompted such a disproportionately harsh speech by Medvedev?” The only thing worse than this would have been to break off diplomatic relations with Ukraine entirely, as Moscow did with Georgia last year and with Israel over 40 years ago. Recall that when Israel trounced its Arab enemies in the 1967 Arab-Israeli war, the Soviet Union, which had placed all of its political eggs for that region in the Arab basket, broke off diplomatic relations with Tel Aviv out of spite.
This example is a good illustration of the consequences of such reckless and poorly thought-out policies. For the 24 years during which the Soviet Union had no diplomatic relations with Israel, the Kremlin lost almost all influence in the Middle East. (Official relations were restored only in 1991, just weeks before the Soviet Union’s collapse.) Today, Russia is formally a sponsor of the Middle East peace process, but that is probably more a weak consolation prize from the other participants in the negotiations than recognition of Moscow’s actual influence in the region. Unfortunately, the same fate awaits Russia in the Caucasus. Just like with Israel, Moscow will one day — perhaps in 24 years? — need to establish normal diplomatic relations with Georgia once again.
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