Nobody imagined in 1947 that the terms on which Palestine would be divided into two states could be determined in negotiations between Jews and Arabs. Comprising almost two thirds of the population and owning an even larger proportion of the arable land, Arabs had no incentive to cede half the country to a minority of recent European immigrants. If there was to be a partition, it would clearly have to be imposed.
The unfortunate reality confronting all those who seek a new two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is that the two sides may be no more likely to reach agreement today than they were 62 years ago.
The balance of power and possession has, of course, shifted dramatically in favour of the Jewish population: they now comprise a little over half of those living in what was once Palestine, but directly control 95 per cent of the territory. They consider handing about a fifth of that territory back to the Palestinians as a “generous offer”, and with a government dictated to by right-wing nationalist settlers who believe they are doing God’s work by driving the Palestinians off land in the West Bank and East Jerusalem, the Israelis are not even feeling particularly “generous”.
That is bad news for the Obama administration, which is preparing to unveil the next phase of an Israeli-Palestinian peace effort that it has made a diplomatic priority of its first term in office – raising expectations that it may struggle to meet.
