To confront Iran, the United States must first confront Europe--and more specifically, the continent's powerful business lobby. This confrontation will come into focus in the next months. As Iran refuses Barack Obama's open-handed offer of engagement, the administration will turn towards sanctioning the Islamic Republic. And while there are surely ways in which the United States can tighten the economic screws on the Mullahs, it is Europe that has a much livelier trading relationship with Iran. In fact, Iran is far more economically dependent on Europe than even China and Russia.
Last year, the European Union did 14.1 billion euro worth of trade with Iran. It imports nearly four percent of its energy from Iran--a number that will mushroom thanks to the presence of companies like Royal Dutch Shell, France's Total, and Norway's Hydro-Statoil, all of whom presumably appreciate the extent of the country's vast oil and gas reserves.
Since the fraudulent re-election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Europeans have waxed outraged over the thuggishness of the basij and the imprisonment of dissidents. But all that indignation is highly unlikely to spur the Europeans to use their trade relations as a bludgeon against the Iranians. There's a long history of Europe subjugating its concern about Iranian human rights abuses--and no better example than Germany, Iran's largest trading partner in Europe.
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