The recent fighting in Yemen did not figure prominently in the international coverage despite the torpor of a news-scarce summer, and it was quickly overshadowed by the armed clashes in Gaza in the Arab media. It is another alarming sign that the international community has simply decided to wish the problem away rather than face the reality of an unravelling state with potentially disastrous consequences.
By most measures, Yemen is one of the most underperforming Arab countries. It lags behind in any number of human and social standards. But security and political deterioration in recent years has experts worrying about the very survival of the country. There are several ways of looking at Yemen's slow unravelling. Cynical determinists see a myriad of centrifugal forces at play, which will eventually overwhelm a weak central state. Others blame a typical, if extreme, case of the failure of Arab governance, compounded by the rise of extremist ideologies and regional separatism. Yet others focus on the structural challenges that afflict every aspect of Yemeni life, from low productivity to agricultural decay to demographic pressure. The reality is a possibly lethal blend of the three.
What happened in Yemen last week was no small affair. After the collapse of yet another truce, the government launched air strikes against al Houthi rebels in the northern province of Saada, which borders Saudi Arabia, killing and injuring dozens and displacing 120,000 people. The al Houthis had managed to capture several important sites in that region, making the state's claims of progress appear ridiculous. That the military felt it necessary to employ the air force despite the prospect of civilian casualties is in itself an admission that the rebellion is more than a mere annoyance. The five-year-old Shiite uprising, which is named after its leader Abdul Malik al Houthi and is developing dangerous sectarian overtones, seems to be motivated by feelings of government abandonment and Wahhabi penetration, but the government is quick to dismiss these grievances. Rather, it sees a convergence of domestic opposition with meddling from Iran as the reason for the unrest.
Worryingly, this insurrection is only one of three major insurgencies that engulf the poorest, most populous state of the Arabian peninsula. In the south, the secessionist movement is becoming bolder. The reunification of Yemen in 1990 has failed its promises. Many southerners no longer demand reform and better governance – they now call for outright independence. Southern militias are combating advancing northern forces, and a political hardening is perceptible among the population in the south, despite secession remaining a very distant possibility.
Finally, al Qa'eda shows no sign of retreat. Just last year, it carried out a daring bombing of the US Embassy in Sanaa. Its efforts are aided by a large pool of recruits, a weak and compromised security apparatus and a sympathetic community, all of which allow it to operate with relative impunity in Yemen.No wonder in such a context that the authority of the president is being assailed. Ali Abdullah Saleh, who until recently was praised for his political savvy, is quickly falling from grace. His credibility has been eroded by suspected cronyism and incompetence, and instead of using last spring's elections as a catalyst for modernisation and reform, he postponed them. Prominent figures have called for his resignation but the political opposition is so disparate and weak that dissent is still rooted in tribal structures.
So what to do to prevent that nightmare scenario of a failed Yemen defined by warlordism, terrorism and piracy at the gates of the Red Sea and Saudi Arabia?Mr Saleh seems unable to rise above petty politics and engage in serious conflict resolution by himself. But international intervention is of course unthinkable– it would play into the hands of al Qa'eda and other local factions. In fact, the rise of the terrorist thr
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document.write(''); Yemen's problems will not be solved without help
Emile Hokayem
Last Updated: August 19. 2009 1:01AM UAE / August 18. 2009 9:01PM GMT
The recent fighting in Yemen did not figure prominently in the international coverage despite the torpor of a news-scarce summer, and it was quickly overshadowed by the armed clashes in Gaza in the Arab media. It is another alarming sign that the international community has simply decided to wish the problem away rather than face the reality of an unravelling state with potentially disastrous consequences.
@body arnhem:By most measures, Yemen is one of the most underperforming Arab countries. It lags behind in any number of human and social standards. But security and political deterioration in recent years has experts worrying about the very survival of the country. There are several ways of looking at Yemen's slow unravelling. Cynical determinists see a myriad of centrifugal forces at play, which will eventually overwhelm a weak central state. Others blame a typical, if extreme, case of the failure of Arab governance, compounded by the rise of extremist ideologies and regional separatism. Yet others focus on the structural challenges that afflict every aspect of Yemeni life, from low productivity to agricultural decay to demographic pressure. The reality is a possibly lethal blend of the three.
What happened in Yemen last week was no small affair. After the collapse of yet another truce, the government launched air strikes against al Houthi rebels in the northern province of Saada, which borders Saudi Arabia, killing and injuring dozens and displacing 120,000 people. The al Houthis had managed to capture several important sites in that region, making the state's claims of progress appear ridiculous. That the military felt it necessary to employ the air force despite the prospect of civilian casualties is in itself an admission that the rebellion is more than a mere annoyance. The five-year-old Shiite uprising, which is named after its leader Abdul Malik al Houthi and is developing dangerous sectarian overtones, seems to be motivated by feelings of government abandonment and Wahhabi penetration, but the government is quick to dismiss these grievances. Rather, it sees a convergence of domestic opposition with meddling from Iran as the reason for the unrest.
document.write('');
Worryingly, this insurrection is only one of three major insurgencies that engulf the poorest, most populous state of the Arabian peninsula. In the south, the secessionist movement is becoming bolder. The reunification of Yemen in 1990 has failed its promises. Many southerners no longer demand reform and better governance – they now call for outright independence. Southern militias are combating advancing northern forces, and a political hardening is perceptible among the population in the south, despite secession remaining a very distant possibility.
Finally, al Qa'eda shows no sign of retreat. Just last year, it carried out a daring bombing of the US Embassy in Sanaa. Its efforts are aided by a large pool of recruits, a weak and compromised security apparatus and a sympathetic community, all of which allow it to operate with relative impunity in Yemen.No wonder in such a context that the authority of the president is being assailed. Ali Abdullah Saleh, who until recently was praised for his political savvy, is quickly falling from grace. His credibility has been eroded by suspected cronyism and incompetence, and instead of using last spring's elections as a catalyst for modernisation and reform, he postponed them. Prominent figures have called for his resignation but the political opposition is so disparate and weak that dissent is still rooted in tribal structures.
So what to do to prevent that nightmare scenario of a failed Yemen defined by warlordism, terrorism and piracy at the gates of the Red Sea and Saudi Arabia?Mr Saleh seems unable to rise above petty politics and engage in serious conflict resolution by himself. But international intervention is of course unthinkable– it would play into the hands of al Qa'eda and other local factions. In fact, the rise of the terrorist threat has proven to be both a blessing and a monumental challenge for Mr Saleh. With the war on terror, he has been able to make counter-terrorism a key dimension of his relations with western and Arab countries. While he is not inflating the al Qa'eda threat, Mr Saleh conveniently lumps all his other enemies, including the al Houthis, on the list of terrorist organisations to be eliminated, and in the process, secures pledges of support from the US and other countries.
This should be an opportunity for the Arab League, never the most efficient organisation, to redeem itself, but it has been predictably too silent. For Yemen's faraway Arab partners, the temptation is to ignore the problem since they reason, alarmingly, that Yemen's geographic isolation limits any transnational repercussions. Still, the Arab aversion for interventionism and the sacrosanct respect of state sovereignty may be doing Yemen and its people no favour. So this is a good time for Yemen's Gulf neighbours to shoulder that responsibility and agree on a concerted strategy backed by adequate resources. The Gulf states are understandably reluctant to let Yemen into the Gulf Co-operation Council, but unless they invest political capital and resources, and even strong-arm Mr Saleh, they may soon wake up with a much bigger problem on their hands.
Here too, as in many other places in the Middle East, Saudi leadership will prove crucial. For the kingdom, containing the problem has become a priority, starting with physical barriers and manipulating tribal politics. But Saudi and Arab engagement should not be merely focused on security matters. Terrorism will naturally be the first item in any bilateral discussions, but Arabs, who routinely and rightly berate the US for ignoring the root causes of terror, need also to tell Mr Saleh the truth about his performance.
ehokayem@thenational.ae
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The recent fighting in Yemen did not figure prominently in the international coverage despite the torpor of a news-scarce summer, and it was quickly overshadowed by the armed clashes in Gaza in the Arab media. It is another alarming sign that the international community has simply decided to wish the problem away rather than face the reality of an unravelling state with potentially disastrous consequences.
@body arnhem:By most measures, Yemen is one of the most underperforming Arab countries. It lags behind in any number of human and social standards. But security and political deterioration in recent years has experts worrying about the very survival of the country. There are several ways of looking at Yemen's slow unravelling. Cynical determinists see a myriad of centrifugal forces at play, which will eventually overwhelm a weak central state. Others blame a typical, if extreme, case of the failure of Arab governance, compounded by the rise of extremist ideologies and regional separatism. Yet others focus on the structural challenges that afflict every aspect of Yemeni life, from low productivity to agricultural decay to demographic pressure. The reality is a possibly lethal blend of the three.
What happened in Yemen last week was no small affair. After the collapse of yet another truce, the government launched air strikes against al Houthi rebels in the northern province of Saada, which borders Saudi Arabia, killing and injuring dozens and displacing 120,000 people. The al Houthis had managed to capture several important sites in that region, making the state's claims of progress appear ridiculous. That the military felt it necessary to employ the air force despite the prospect of civilian casualties is in itself an admission that the rebellion is more than a mere annoyance. The five-year-old Shiite uprising, which is named after its leader Abdul Malik al Houthi and is developing dangerous sectarian overtones, seems to be motivated by feelings of government abandonment and Wahhabi penetration, but the government is quick to dismiss these grievances. Rather, it sees a convergence of domestic opposition with meddling from Iran as the reason for the unrest.
Worryingly, this insurrection is only one of three major insurgencies that engulf the poorest, most populous state of the Arabian peninsula. In the south, the secessionist movement is becoming bolder. The reunification of Yemen in 1990 has failed its promises. Many southerners no longer demand reform and better governance – they now call for outright independence. Southern militias are combating advancing northern forces, and a political hardening is perceptible among the population in the south, despite secession remaining a very distant possibility.
Finally, al Qa'eda shows no sign of retreat. Just last year, it carried out a daring bombing of the US Embassy in Sanaa. Its efforts are aided by a large pool of recruits, a weak and compromised security apparatus and a sympathetic community, all of which allow it to operate with relative impunity in Yemen.No wonder in such a context that the authority of the president is being assailed. Ali Abdullah Saleh, who until recently was praised for his political savvy, is quickly falling from grace. His credibility has been eroded by suspected cronyism and incompetence, and instead of using last spring's elections as a catalyst for modernisation and reform, he postponed them. Prominent figures have called for his resignation but the political opposition is so disparate and weak that dissent is still rooted in tribal structures.
So what to do to prevent that nightmare scenario of a failed Yemen defined by warlordism, terrorism and piracy at the gates of the Red Sea and Saudi Arabia?Mr Saleh seems unable to rise above petty politics and engage in serious conflict resolution by himself. But international intervention is of course unthinkable– it would play into the hands of al Qa'eda and other local factions. In fact, the rise of the terrorist threat has proven to be both a blessing and a monumental challenge for Mr Saleh. With the war on terror, he has been able to make counter-terrorism a key dimension of his relations with western and Arab countries. While he is not inflating the al Qa'eda threat, Mr Saleh conveniently lumps all his other enemies, including the al Houthis, on the list of terrorist organisations to be eliminated, and in the process, secures pledges of support from the US and other countries.
This should be an opportunity for the Arab League, never the most efficient organisation, to redeem itself, but it has been predictably too silent. For Yemen's faraway Arab partners, the temptation is to ignore the problem since they reason, alarmingly, that Yemen's geographic isolation limits any transnational repercussions. Still, the Arab aversion for interventionism and the sacrosanct respect of state sovereignty may be doing Yemen and its people no favour. So this is a good time for Yemen's Gulf neighbours to shoulder that responsibility and agree on a concerted strategy backed by adequate resources. The Gulf states are understandably reluctant to let Yemen into the Gulf Co-operation Council, but unless they invest political capital and resources, and even strong-arm Mr Saleh, they may soon wake up with a much bigger problem on their hands.
Here too, as in many other places in the Middle East, Saudi leadership will prove crucial. For the kingdom, containing the problem has become a priority, starting with physical barriers and manipulating tribal politics. But Saudi and Arab engagement should not be merely focused on security matters. Terrorism will naturally be the first item in any bilateral discussions, but Arabs, who routinely and rightly berate the US for ignoring the root causes of terror, need also to tell Mr Saleh the truth about his performance.
ehokayem@thenational.ae
Have your say
Top stories Baghdad blasts leave nearly 100 dead in day of carnage Air Asia X offers Dh99 ticket to Malaysia Love that stands the test of time Drop in UAE gold demand eases Gunners ahead in Champions League play-off Your View What preparations have you made for Ramadan this year?Will the changes to pedestrian crossings make Abu Dhabi safer?Will the waiving of the Dh150,000 set-up fee encourage you to establish a business in the UAE?Have you noticed increased hair loss since living in the UAE?Have you been affected by the slowdown in construction on projects in Dubai? Most popular stories Most read Most e-mailed Love that stands the test of time Reem developers rework schedules Jumeirah beach park debris upsets the residents Corruption inquiries total Dh3.6bn A bus network for new Metro line Oil tanker travelling from UAE sinking in Malacca Strait Air Asia X offers Dh99 ticket to Malaysia Baghdad blasts leave nearly 100 dead in day of carnage Gunners ahead in Champions League play-off Driver dies as his taxi goes up in flames Burqini swimwear makes a splash Clock ticking on Nakheel debt Charity tackles Dhaka poverty with English lessons Mystery hair loss afflicts the UAE Emiratis turning to private schools Expat bank account details to be exposed How did triathlete get injured? If they won't make peace we may have to make it for them Building collapses in Dubai Ex-wife 'admits to torching wedding tent' var countries=new ddtabcontent("countrytabs") countries.setpersist(true) countries.setselectedClassTarget("link") //"link" or "linkparent" countries.init() Products & Services Your View e-polls e-Paper RSS Feeds Home UAE World Business Sport About us Contact us Terms & Conditions FAQ Site map
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