August is always the worst month for surprises, which often take the form of wars: World War I, the Gulf War, and more recently, the Lebanon War and the Russia-Georgia War. For fear of jinxing a good thing, I shudder to say that we're halfway through August, and so far so good. But there is that business of tomorrow's election in Afghanistan. The worst case scenario for it may be improbable, but it's not impossible. And it certainly could rise to the level of nasty "August crisis." So what might that look like?
One worst case outcome is the Iran scenario -- a disputed election result, allegations of fraud, and a drawn-out political fight laced with street protests and sporadic violence. This could be set off by either a narrow Karzai win or a suspicious Karzai blow-out (Ahmadinejad style). One could imagine days, even weeks, of protests by the losing candidates' supporters demanding a recount, or a revote if none is declared, ultimately leading to an unpopular Karzai dispatching the U.S.-backed Afghan security forces to do battle with his political opponents under the banner law and order.
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