Are the Taliban Afraid the U.S. Might Win?

Are the Taliban Afraid the U.S. Might Win?

 

 

Last July 27, about three months after the Obama administration unveiled its new comprehensive strategy for Afghanistan and three weeks before the date of the Afghan presidential election, which took place this past Thursday, the Taliban published a book outlining a code of conduct for its members. The book – which contains 13 chapters and 67 articles – contains a list of do’s and don’ts, and imposes strict conditions when it comes to the killing of civilians.

While American military officials derided this code of conduct as a propaganda tool and not something the Taliban would actually implement, they missed the key point in the initiative: The fact that the Taliban felt it necessary to publish such a book at all indicated that they fear that President Barack Obama’s approach may just be working. 

As the Taliban’s code correctly notes, the struggle in Afghanistan between the American-led NATO International Security Assistance Force and the Taliban is ultimately a battle for the hearts and minds of the people of Afghanistan. While Afghans initially welcomed the United States-led 2001 operation to remove the Taliban from power, they became dismayed as the Bush administration gave overwhelming priority to the war in Iraq and failed to follow through on its earlier promises to provide security, development and reconstruction assistance to Afghanistan. 

As Admiral Mike Mullen, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, remarked in 2007: “In Iraq we do what we must, in Afghanistan we do what we can.” At the time of Mullen’s statement, the United States had 170,000 troops in Iraq, and only 30,000 in Afghanistan. It was spending $12 billion a month in Iraq and only $2 billion in Afghanistan. And it had trained some 600,000 members of the Iraqi security forces, but less than 100,000 in Afghanistan. 

This lack of attention and resources allowed the Taliban to regroup and retake significant parts of Afghanistan, particularly in the south and east, beginning in 2006. In turn, NATO did not have enough troops to remain in the areas it had cleared or had not trained enough Afghan security forces to do so. These conditions also made the Afghan people wonder if the United States would abandon them as it did in the 1980s after the Soviet armed forces withdrew from the country. 

Moreover, when the Taliban retook areas like Musaqila in Helmand Province in 2006, they executed and jailed tribal elders for collaborating with the Americans and their allies. This was done to reinforce the message that while NATO and the US might be around for a while, the Taliban were there for the long-term. The US military only compounded the problem by relying increasingly on air power to make up for its lack of boots on the ground, which often resulted in significant civilian casualties, further alienating Afghans.

Obama’s decision to implement his campaign promise of making Afghanistan a priority could dramatically change the situation on the ground. The president has promised to send in 20,000 more troops and hundreds more civilian workers, provide significantly more development and reconstruction assistance to the Afghans, and to increase the size of the Afghan army and police forces. This infusion of resources sends the message that Obama is committed to the Afghans’ welfare for the long haul. It is these changes, not just the defeat of the Taliban, that will win back the hearts and minds of the Afghan people. 

To combat these changes the Taliban apparently felt it necessary to transform its image. Rather than relying on violence to intimidate the Afghan population, its leadership issued a code of conduct that urges militants to win the hearts and minds of the local population by limiting suicide attacks, avoiding civilian casualties, not carrying out kidnappings for ransom, and not practicing “discrimination based on tribal roots, language or geographic background.” 

We must wait to see whether the code will be fully implemented. In the run-up to the presidential election, escalating violence suggested that there were those Taliban who preferred to ignore it. In the meantime, American and NATO forces should take comfort in the fact that the Taliban are worried that this new American approach just might pay off. 

 

Lawrence Korb is a senior fellow at American Progress and a senior adviser to the Center for Defense Information. He served as assistant secretary of defense from 1981 through 1985. THE DAILY STAR publishes this commentary, which first appeared in The Sacramento Bee, in collaboration with the Common Ground News Service (www.commongroundnews.org).

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