It is the summer of 2010. In Tehran, the leadership is accelerating the pace of its efforts to acquire nuclear arms and worrying about an Israeli strike. Among those at a conference with spiritual leader Ali Khamenei are intelligence and military personnel and leaders of the Revolutionary Guards, including some who took part in seizing the American Embassy in 1979 and holding 54 of its staff hostage for a year and nearly three months.
"Remember Saddam Hussein's idea of arresting thousands of foreigners who were in Iraq at the time and placing them at strategic installations as human shields? Saddam held back from doing it, but we have nothing to lose," one senior official will say. "In one fell swoop, on a single day, from western Europe to South America to the Far East, using our own resources and some help from our friends in various organizations, we can try to kidnap 10 Israelis - officials, tourists, whatever, they all serve in the army - and bring them to Iran. Not all the attempts will succeed, but seven or even five will be enough. We will try them for espionage, sentence them to death, and announce that we will execute them if the Israelis attack. Let's see how the government and the public in Israel respond."
A fictitious scenario, but not a fantastic one - especially not if Israel has by then surrendered to the dictates of an emerging deal to exchange Gilad Shalit for hundreds of Hamas prisoners. The deal that Benjamin Netanyahu's government is now contemplating approving will be one of the greatest defeats ever inflicted on this country.
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