Ahmadinejad's Newfound Independence

The recent Iranian election fiasco has been a blessing in disguise for President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. His reelection was confirmed by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the vote count was ratified by the Council of Guardians, and the presidential oath of office was taken in front of a majority of parliamentarians. Consequently, while those officials may object to his actions, their ability to counter them is limited. If Ahmadinejad fails, so, too, will they for having sanctioned his authority.

But in order to hold any public position in the future -- and he can be elected to a third, nonconsecutive, presidential term -- Ahmadinejad needs to regain the confidence of Iran's people, because he cannot count on another clerically engineered miracle.

Sources in Iran indicate that, faced with mounting demands of loyalty from the hardliners who brought him back to power, Ahmadinejad is instead exploiting their public weaknesses and internal schisms to assert his independence. Yes, hardliners did prevail in their demands that First Vice President Esfandiar Mashaie step down, after reports surfaced of his being conciliatory towards Israel. But Ahmadinejad promptly reappointed Mashaie to the rank of presidential chief of staff, despite protests from Khamenei and other fundamentalist clerics.

When nominating his new cabinet of ministers, Ahmadinejad touted their secular university-based qualifications as an "advantage," in clear contrast to the seminary-based learning of the clerics opposing him. Those selections sought to rebuild ties with Iran's intellectual and public elites. He focused on inclusiveness as well by appointing three women, remarking: "Why shouldn't women be in the Cabinet. . . . Who says women aren't better?" Their selection undercut yet another important segment of the opposition, casting his political rivals among both hardliners and reformers -- including former Presidents Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and Mohammad Khatami, and former Prime Minister Mir Hossein Mousavi -- as misogynists. Knowing that fundamentalist parliamentarians may try to block confirmation of cabinet ministers, Ahmadinejad has affirmed that the executive branch will not bow to the legislative one.

Yet, to restore his compromised position, Ahmadinejad has to do more than just outmaneuver his opponents. His appointees and he know they must successfully redress the economic mismanagement from his first term as president that saw inflation rise from 11 percent to 28 percent, unemployment rise from 11 percent to 12.5 percent, and GDP fall from 6.3 percent to an estimated 4.9 percent. Despite being the world's fifth-largest crude oil exporter, Iran imports 40 percent of the fuel utilized by Iranians due to limited refining capacity. Sanctions under consideration by G-8 nations will target those imports, while making Western trade with Iran nearly impossible by preventing its insurance and restricting its shipment.