Western diplomats have been afraid of this predicament ever since the poll results began to come in, with an apparent lead for President Karzai accompanied by a torrent of allegations of fraud. Mr Karzai is now within a whisker of the 50 per cent that would allow him to him claim victory and prevent a run-off vote. But the huge number of serious allegations of fraud — in the thousands, but with at least 600 material to the outcome of the election — mean that it is hard to take his victory as legitimate.
That, certainly, is the view of Abdullah Abdullah, his main rival, and Abdullah supporters. They are threatening to challenge the result through legal appeals and through violence if necessary. The studied position of British and US officials for the past week — that it is for Afghans to decide whether or not the polls produce a credible and legitimate result — is about to shatter. If substantial numbers of Afghans decide that the vote was rigged, what do other governments do then? They have had no answer, hoping not to be in that position. They had better find one now.
The attempted solution, for the past week, involved persuading Mr Karzai to accept a second round vote against Mr Abdullah, for the sake of enhancing the legitimacy of the poll. He didn’t like the idea when it was put to him a week ago by Richard Holbrooke, the US envoy. He will like it even less now, with almost 50 per cent of the vote in his hands. US and British officials can perhaps use the growing anger back home at the cost and casualties of the war to put more pressure on Mr Karzai and warn him that their support cannot be taken for granted.
Hopes of that working are slim. Mr Karzai has proved impervious to outside pressure during his presidency — over corruption, cronyism, indulgence of the drug trade, violent and overbearing warlords and provincial governors; all the causes that foreign governments tried to encourage him to respect, he has shrugged off.
Gordon Brown, in his speech on Friday, intended to justify the war more clearly to a sceptical British public, referred to the corruption of the Kabul Government. He said, rightly, that a “cleaner government” in Kabul would be needed if Afghans, and foreign governments, were to support it. He said nothing about how that might be achieved. There are no easy answers but the donors have some leverage and must try to use it. All the same, Mr Karzai has held power by spinning his web of patronage, favours and threats, and it may be impossible to prise him off the techniques to which he owes his position.
Britain and the US have also spent the past week exploring whether Mr Abdullah would consent to a role in a national unity government led by Mr Karzai, and whether the President would accept this. That was the thrust of talks in the sidelines of the Paris conference at the end of last week. There has not been much joy on either side of that argument. Mr Abdullah, more enraged by apparent fraud in the elections as the days have gone on, has bridled at the idea of teaming up with Mr Karzai. The President has seen less need to surrender as the days have gone on.
The complaints of fraud are coming from all the candidates, and Mr Karzai is not the only target. This was always going to be a messy election, but governments are now going to have to face the question they wanted to duck. If many Afghans do indeed indicate that they think this election too flawed to be acceptable, will they then agree, openly, and tell Mr Karzai that his victory does not stand?
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