China, Myanmar Border on Conflict

BANGKOK - An ominous lull has fallen over northern Myanmar since the military government's defeat last week of Kokang ethnic insurgents. All sides appear to be preparing for the next round, which, depending on the scale of the offensive or counter-offensive, could plunge other ceasefire regions into renewed civil war.

It is unclear whether Myanmar's generals are willing to challenge the better-armed ethnic Wa and Kachin - and by proxy potentially China - or if recent moves are part of an elaborate strategic bluff. By taking out the Kokang, which in their tens of thousands fled across the border into northern China, the junta has tested both Beijing's resolve to back Myanmar-based insurgent groups and the willingness of the ceasefire groups to militarily support each other.