The end of this month will mark the deadline fixed by President Obama for Iran to respond to his offer of "unconditional talks."
Obama has gone out of his way to point out that it's not an ultimatum, and that he doesn't expect a full response; Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has said the administration would be happy with "some kind of an answer."
Tehran media claim that Obama has written a second letter to Iranian "Supreme Guide" Ali Khamenei, offering an even leafier olive branch. (The White House refuses to confirm or deny the claim.)
Meanwhile, some pundits are preparing the ground for an acceptance of the Islamic Republic as a nuclear power -- advising the president to "whistle and walk away" from an issue over which he has little control.
Tehran strategists see all this as a signal that the United States is no longer determined to prevent Iran from building the bomb. At a Thursday press conference, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Iran's nuclear project is no longer "a subject for negotiations."
Yet one issue divides Tehran's strategists: Should Ahmadinejad press for "total victory" over the United States, or offer Obama "a diplomatic fig leaf"?
The more radical view is that Iran should seize the chance provided by Obama's "strategic retreat." "The emperor is naked," says Hassan Abbasi, a theoretician for the Revolutionary Guard. "Obama's election showed that America has no stomach for a fight."
Hussein Shariatmadari, the regime's leading public intellectual and editor of Kayhan, Iran's main daily newspaper, agrees. His editorials argue that the world has already entered the "post-American era" and that the Islamic Republic must act as the "leading power" for creating a new world order.
The end of this month will mark the deadline fixed by President Obama for Iran to respond to his offer of "unconditional talks."
Obama has gone out of his way to point out that it's not an ultimatum, and that he doesn't expect a full response; Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has said the administration would be happy with "some kind of an answer."
Tehran media claim that Obama has written a second letter to Iranian "Supreme Guide" Ali Khamenei, offering an even leafier olive branch. (The White House refuses to confirm or deny the claim.)
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Meanwhile, some pundits are preparing the ground for an acceptance of the Islamic Republic as a nuclear power -- advising the president to "whistle and walk away" from an issue over which he has little control.
Tehran strategists see all this as a signal that the United States is no longer determined to prevent Iran from building the bomb. At a Thursday press conference, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Iran's nuclear project is no longer "a subject for negotiations."
Yet one issue divides Tehran's strategists: Should Ahmadinejad press for "total victory" over the United States, or offer Obama "a diplomatic fig leaf"?
The more radical view is that Iran should seize the chance provided by Obama's "strategic retreat." "The emperor is naked," says Hassan Abbasi, a theoretician for the Revolutionary Guard. "Obama's election showed that America has no stomach for a fight."
Hussein Shariatmadari, the regime's leading public intellectual and editor of Kayhan, Iran's main daily newspaper, agrees. His editorials argue that the world has already entered the "post-American era" and that the Islamic Republic must act as the "leading power" for creating a new world order.
Others disagree.
Dr. Manuchehr Muhammadi, a Foreign Ministry adviser, believes that Iran should respond "in a positive way." He argues that humiliating Obama could produce a backlash -- as President Jimmy Carter's humiliation by the late Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini helped Ronald Reagan's victory.
Supporters of a positive response to Obama cite other reasons why Iran shouldn't reject his offer: The president has gone out of his way to apologize for real or imagined wrongs that America has done to Iran and the Muslim world, and turned the heat on Israel -- especially on the sensitive issue of Jewish settlements.
Most important, perhaps, Obama has decided to terminate the US presence in Iraq as quickly as possible without seeking a special relationship. That leaves the way open for Iran to assert its position as the dominant influence in Iraq.
Obama's diplomacy has already offered the Islamic Republic eight months free of international pressures and new sanctions. The day Obama was sworn in as president, it was operating 3,000 centrifuges enriching uranium. By last week, that number had reached 7,500.
The breathing space has also enabled Tehran to embark on massive imports of gasoline to forestall moves to deprive Iran of some 40 percent of its daily needs. According to Ahmad Tavakkoli, a member of Iran's ersatz parliament, Tehran has tripled its gasoline imports, raising the strategic reserves from three months to six.
A year or two of talks with Obama would give Iran enough time to complete its huge program of building new refineries with help from China, India, Russia, Austria and Brazil. That would remove the regime's fear of facing gasoline shortages provoked by sanctions. Ahmadinejad claims that, by 2011, Iran will be a net exporter of refined petroleum products.
Iran also needs another year or two to achieve "surge capacity" -- that is, to have all the technical and industrial means to build a nuclear-weapons arsenal.
Finally, advocates of a "positive response" point to Obama's refusal to support the recent democracy uprising across Iran. Obama has recognized the legitimacy of Ahmadinejad's disputed re-election and broken ranks with European allies that took a tougher stance in support of the Iranian democracy movement.
Right now, the best guess is that Tehran will offer something to make Obama happy, thus encouraging the belief that the Khomeinist regime might alter its strategic goals through negotiations.
Ahmadinejad will be in New York later this month to address the UN General Assembly. He has offered to debate Obama in public "on all issues of international importance." Such a debate is unlikely, at least for now. But expect some gesture of goodwill toward Obama from the maverick Iranian leader.
"We must not repeat the mistake we made with Carter," says Dr. Muhammadi.
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09/10/2009 9:52 AM
It's time for this US traitor to be impeached. This low life loves communists and dictators and hates freedom. He is surrounded by commies and other left wing animals and MUST be removed from office before we are all dead!!! What will happen to this piece of crap when the first bomb goes off here in the U.S.
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09/10/2009 7:04 AM
BH Obama as Jimmy Carter. Now that's a novel idea! It seems that the debate among the mullahs is about how to skin us alive: slowly or at one go.O's readiness to endrose anti-Americanism gives them hope. SK
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Tehran strategists see all this as a signal that the United States is no longer determined to prevent Iran from building the bomb. At a Thursday press conference, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Iran's nuclear project is no longer "a subject for negotiations."
Yet one issue divides Tehran's strategists: Should Ahmadinejad press for "total victory" over the United States, or offer Obama "a diplomatic fig leaf"?
The more radical view is that Iran should seize the chance provided by Obama's "strategic retreat." "The emperor is naked," says Hassan Abbasi, a theoretician for the Revolutionary Guard. "Obama's election showed that America has no stomach for a fight."
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