A terse announcement by North Korea's No 2 last week that there had been no internal discussion on who would succeed the country's ruler, Kim Jong Il, was probably a smoke screen to divert outside attention from the process of choosing an heir. The attention is unwanted because it could show North Korea is in a period of some volatility.When asked about succession, Kim Yong Nam, president of the Presidium of the Supreme People's Assembly, the country's unicameral parliament, told Japan's Kyodo News Agency on Thursday: “We haven't even had discussion on such an issue in our country. Our republic's people are strongly united around Chairman Kim.”
The latest statement, from the country's second most powerful man, drew attention for the contradictory fact that party officials had been rallying around the heir apparent, Kim Jong Un, the leader's youngest son. The Daily NK internet newspaper website, run by North Korean defectors in Seoul, reported that sources from North Korea said last week that the succession process for Kim Jong Un has been suspended. Since then, pundits have been divided over what the apparent stall in the succession process might mean.
The issue even prompted South Korean President Lee Myung-bak on Friday to speculate that it may be an indication that the situation in North Korea is “fluid”, hinting at a possible internal, factional row.Some speculated that Mr Kim fell out of favour with the senior cadres of the Worker's Party or the National Defence Commission, perhaps because the elders who make up the highest decision-making body in North Korea see Mr Kim as too young and inexperienced.
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But Cheong Seong-chang, a senior fellow at the Sejong Institute, a Seoul-based think tank, sees Kim Yong Nam's pronouncement as a diversionary tactic targeting a foreign audience. “It's a smoke screen,” Mr Cheong said. “Last year when Kim Jong Il was suffering from a stroke, the same Kyodo asked Kim Yong Nam about Kim Jong Il's health. At that time, Kim Yong Nam said there was no problem with Kim Jong Il's health. He even said such an allegation is a defamatory strategy from outside forces to undermine the nation. But we now all know that Kim Jong Il indeed had a health problem. So, it's d�j� vu,” Mr Cheong said.
Liu Ming, the director of International Relations Theory Studies at the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, said: “My understanding is that after Kim Jong Il had a stroke last summer, North Korea prepared for a sudden change of leadership, including the “Dear Leader's” death. But he now seems to have recovered well and [is in] very good health. So, there is no urgency. Therefore, they dropped the contingency arrangement for succession.”
Observers say it is possible North Korea is playing a two-track strategy: internally, it is speeding up the succession by continually unfolding the process; outwardly, it is diverting international attention from the drawn-out transfer of power.Evidence for this comes from recent visitors to North Korea. “People who are authorised to deal with foreigners openly talk about Jong Un as the next leader,” said Leonid Petrov, a Russian specialist on North Korea, who is based at Austra
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document.write(''); Mystery of Kim’s successor deepens
Sunny Lee, Foreign Correspondent
Last Updated: September 13. 2009 10:12PM UAE / September 13. 2009 6:12PM GMT
Questions have been raised over the health of the North Korean leader Kim Jong Il. Above, he visits a fishery in North Korea earlier this month. KCNA via KNS / AFP
BEIJING // A terse announcement by North Korea's No 2 last week that there had been no internal discussion on who would succeed the country's ruler, Kim Jong Il, was probably a smoke screen to divert outside attention from the process of choosing an heir. The attention is unwanted because it could show North Korea is in a period of some volatility.When asked about succession, Kim Yong Nam, president of the Presidium of the Supreme People's Assembly, the country's unicameral parliament, told Japan's Kyodo News Agency on Thursday: “We haven't even had discussion on such an issue in our country. Our republic's people are strongly united around Chairman Kim.”
The latest statement, from the country's second most powerful man, drew attention for the contradictory fact that party officials had been rallying around the heir apparent, Kim Jong Un, the leader's youngest son. The Daily NK internet newspaper website, run by North Korean defectors in Seoul, reported that sources from North Korea said last week that the succession process for Kim Jong Un has been suspended. Since then, pundits have been divided over what the apparent stall in the succession process might mean.
The issue even prompted South Korean President Lee Myung-bak on Friday to speculate that it may be an indication that the situation in North Korea is “fluid”, hinting at a possible internal, factional row.Some speculated that Mr Kim fell out of favour with the senior cadres of the Worker's Party or the National Defence Commission, perhaps because the elders who make up the highest decision-making body in North Korea see Mr Kim as too young and inexperienced.
document.write('');
But Cheong Seong-chang, a senior fellow at the Sejong Institute, a Seoul-based think tank, sees Kim Yong Nam's pronouncement as a diversionary tactic targeting a foreign audience. “It's a smoke screen,” Mr Cheong said. “Last year when Kim Jong Il was suffering from a stroke, the same Kyodo asked Kim Yong Nam about Kim Jong Il's health. At that time, Kim Yong Nam said there was no problem with Kim Jong Il's health. He even said such an allegation is a defamatory strategy from outside forces to undermine the nation. But we now all know that Kim Jong Il indeed had a health problem. So, it's d�j� vu,” Mr Cheong said.
Liu Ming, the director of International Relations Theory Studies at the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, said: “My understanding is that after Kim Jong Il had a stroke last summer, North Korea prepared for a sudden change of leadership, including the “Dear Leader's” death. But he now seems to have recovered well and [is in] very good health. So, there is no urgency. Therefore, they dropped the contingency arrangement for succession.”
Observers say it is possible North Korea is playing a two-track strategy: internally, it is speeding up the succession by continually unfolding the process; outwardly, it is diverting international attention from the drawn-out transfer of power.Evidence for this comes from recent visitors to North Korea. “People who are authorised to deal with foreigners openly talk about Jong Un as the next leader,” said Leonid Petrov, a Russian specialist on North Korea, who is based at Australian National University.
“Kim Yong Nam is likely misrepresenting the situation for a foreign audience. It's the usual tactic of a totalitarian regime to deny the obvious,” Mr Petrov said. The primary reason for North Korea to maintain a low profile for the succession, observers say, is to avoid outside criticism about the rare three-generation succession to the leadership of a modern state. The current leader, Kim Jong Il, was tagged as the successor to Kim Il Sung, his father, in 1974. But his assuming of the leadership was not officially announced until 1980, as the North worked internally on seeking “understanding” from other socialist countries, including its closest ideological ally, China.
As North Korea's smoke screen dissipates, however, a number of analysts also disagree with the view that the statement by Kim Yong Nam was any indication of an internal power struggle either. “Stalin's death didn't bring about the collapse of the Soviet Union. Mao Zedong's death didn't bring about the demise of China. North Korea is the same. Even if Kim Jong Il dies, the power elites wouldn't let the country collapse because they don't want to give up their privileges,” Mr Cheong said.
Mr Liu said: “There is not sufficient evidence for a power struggle.”Some analysts think that North Korea's renewed highlighting of an active Kim Jong Il is a signal to the world that he is now healthy enough to call the shots and the United States should deal with him for serious negotiations, instead of waiting for “the next leader”. On Friday, the United States shifted its policy on North Korea and said it is now willing to meet one-on-one with North Korea if that facilitates Pyongyang's return to the table to discuss its nuclear programme.
Mr Liu said Washington's new tactic may not achieve its goals quickly. “I am not optimistic. This will be another North Korean routine. They escalate tension, then soften [their] posture, then attract US attention by making some symbolic concessions. But once talks resume, they will reintroduce previous obstacles. I don't expect any surprise or a breakthrough.”foreign.desk@thenational.ae
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