Try this as a thought experiment: imagine a dynamic modern Russia with a robust knowledge economy, diversified industry, and reasonably functioning legal system where starting a business –or adjudicating disputes -- is no more difficult than in say, Turkey or Malaysia. Not easy, is it? In fact, in a remarkable article published on Gazeta.ru, a Russian webzine, President Medvedev starkly outlines his country’s challenges and poses the question whether Russia can change enough to “own tomorrow.”
It may be one of the BRICs, but when I think how things are likely to change in coming decades, it is not hard to conjure up impressive scenarios for China, for India or even for Brazil. But when you get to Russia, it is difficult to envision anything like the sort of success many expect for the other BRICs.
To loud indignation in Moscow, Vice President Joe Biden, in an interview with the Wall St. Journal (7-24) offered his assessment of Russia’s predicament. You might have thought that he spewed some truly nasty insults. Yet what stirred the controversy was an unusually blunt assessment of Russia’s situation: “They have a shrinking population base, they have a withering economy, they have a banking sector and structure that is not likely to be able to withstand the next 15 years, they’re in a situation where the world is changing before them and they’re clinging to something in the past that is not sustainable.”
A bit stark. Perhaps a tad exaggerated. But how many Russia hands would disagree? A generation after the end of the Cold war, it is a good time to ask: Whither Russia?
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