Climate Change Will Impact Indian Security

It is 2050. A warming climate and accelerated snowmelt have reduced the dry season flow in the Indus to a trickle. Pakistan backs out from the Indus Waters Treaty and demands international intervention against India to increase its share of water flow. At the other end, gradual loss of land to a rising sea in the Ganga-Brahmaputra delta is displacing nearly a million people a year and the flow of illegal migrants is roiling relations with Bangladesh and law and order in the north-east. At the southern end of the country, the government is struggling to find land for resettling several lakh refugees from the Maldives, Lakshdweep and other islands. These and other security risks created by global warming need to be taken into account in long-term strategic planning.

Climate change will change the context for strategic planning because of the substantial changes in geography that it could bring about. From an Indian perspective, these would include: warming of the Himalayan-Hindu Kush-Tibetan highlands and its impact on river water flows; rise in sea levels and its impact in the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta; and rapid melting of Arctic ice.

Warming of the highlands in the central part of Asia, where practically all major Asian rivers have their origin, will affect the volume and timing of river flows. These are all international rivers and the sharing of their waters has always been a major source of friction. Clearly, this will lead China to tighten its grip on Tibet so that it can leverage its power as the upstream state.