The Iraq war, intended by George W. Bush to make the West secure, defeat Islamic radicalism and make democracy a reality in the Middle East, is for now forgotten by a news media obsessed by Afghanistan, barring the occasional nasty headline from Baghdad. The U.S. troop surge of 2007 has been said by apologists to have righted earlier wrongs. Many political and academic gurus take comfort from examples showing Iraqis now able to work together. Iraq's parliament, still vigorous in debate, is seen as proof of how a civil society based on the rule of law, freedom of choice and respect for others could emerge.
As Barack Obama's administration continues to redeploy and withdraw from Iraq, Washington has little choice but to project a modicum of confidence and hope. Events on the ground are not given due weight publicly because they reveal too much suffering and tragedy, both now and in future. Acknowledging the destructive role of ethnic and religious nationalism is fraught with risk. Better to fudge now, allowing U.S. forces to get out and then pass the blame to the Iraqis themselves, having failed to meet the challenge.
Westerners often find ethno-religious nationalism disturbing. It contrasts so sharply with our own belief in the supremacy of civic values. We are reluctant to acknowledge that once communal violence predominates, maintaining a single governing entity becomes impossible. Hate and fear then dominate. In Iraq, tragedies have become badges of honour and the concept of victimization is lifeblood. The U.S. invasion of 2003 rid the world of a barbaric autocrat but in doing so released forces that assure the country's demise.
After six years of rebuilding and reforming, southern Iraq has become a de facto theocratic Shia state, with widespread dissension among feuding movements and leaderships. There is no single dominant grouping in this internal struggle for power. Paradoxically, the longer infighting continues the more Iran benefits, spreading Shia influence deep into the Sunni Arab heartland.
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