The Republic of Ireland is not used to throwing its weight around. It is resolutely neutral and does not send its armies to fight abroad. With its small population of four million it wields little clout in the European Union, a grouping of 500 million citizens.Yet today Ireland is the centre of attention for the whole of Europe as it votes in a referendum that could put an end to the EU's ambitions to be a major player on the world stage. The subject at hand is the Lisbon Treaty, a much rewritten document that aims to streamline European decision-making, giving the bloc its first president and providing it with its own diplomatic corps and security role.
These words may bring a sense of deja vu to some readers. Did not the Irish hold a referendum a little more than a year ago, on the same treaty, and vote it down by a margin of 53 to 47 per cent? They did indeed. But the workings of democracy are a wonder to behold, and especially in the European Union, where the voter is generally outgunned by the bureaucracy.Having voted No last year – the only country of 27 to do so – and thereby consigning the Lisbon Treaty to the dustbin, the Irish have been forced to retake the exam, and to try to come up with the correct answer.
This time the stakes are even higher. In 2008, there was always the possibility that the Irish could be persuaded to try again, an EU practice sanctioned by previous usage. But to put a treaty to referendum three times would be unheard of, and the document, if voted down today, will not rise again.Supporters of the treaty are warning the Irish of their responsibilities. Without a common security and defence policy, the EU would become unglued: France would pursue its own interests in the Mediterranean, Germany would cuddle up to Russia, and Britain would rush into the arms of Washington.
document.write('');
There is little doubt that the fall of the treaty would halt further EU expansion (except perhaps for Croatia, which is well on the way to joining) and further alienate Turkey, where the pro-Europeans would be dealt a decisive blow, forcing Ankara to look elsewhere for its future alliances.All the opinion polls indicate that the Irish are inclined to vote Yes this time. But it is not geopolitics that motivates them. It is naked fear. Until recently Ireland was the Celtic Tiger, with a booming economy. Now it is one of the basket cases of Europe, with soaring unemployment and a spectacularly burst housing bubble.
European taxpayers' money and membership of the euro, the European currency, have certainly helped Ireland to avoid an even more disastrous crash. The example of Iceland – a more remote island which also over-reached itself on cheap credit but is not a member of the EU – is instructive. The Icelanders, beggared by their reckless banks, are actively considering joining the EU, which will force them to give up their carefully husbanded fish stocks to be gobbled up by the greedy fleets of Europe.
Seeking shelter in a big bloc is understandable. But in Ireland the worry is more specific. The Yes campaign seems to have persuaded the Irish that the only ladder to climb out of the hole they have dug for themselves is provided by Brussels, which could pull it up if they misbehave in the referendum.The voters have some concessions to cling to. The Irish prime minister, the uncharismatic and deeply unpopular Brian Cowen, has wrung some guarantees from Brussels: the Lisbon Treaty will not force Ireland to change its laws on neutrality or abortion (it is a strongly Roman Catholic country) or raise its low rate of corporation tax, the reason why so many large American companies site their European headquarters in Dublin.
Sceptics ask what these “guarantees” will mean in fact, if the EU is to become a military force, with a more co-ordinated economic policy
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document.write(''); This little island with the fate of Europe in its hands
Alan Philps
Last Updated: October 01. 2009 11:43PM UAE / October 1. 2009 7:43PM GMT
The Republic of Ireland is not used to throwing its weight around. It is resolutely neutral and does not send its armies to fight abroad. With its small population of four million it wields little clout in the European Union, a grouping of 500 million citizens.Yet today Ireland is the centre of attention for the whole of Europe as it votes in a referendum that could put an end to the EU's ambitions to be a major player on the world stage. The subject at hand is the Lisbon Treaty, a much rewritten document that aims to streamline European decision-making, giving the bloc its first president and providing it with its own diplomatic corps and security role.
These words may bring a sense of deja vu to some readers. Did not the Irish hold a referendum a little more than a year ago, on the same treaty, and vote it down by a margin of 53 to 47 per cent? They did indeed. But the workings of democracy are a wonder to behold, and especially in the European Union, where the voter is generally outgunned by the bureaucracy.Having voted No last year – the only country of 27 to do so – and thereby consigning the Lisbon Treaty to the dustbin, the Irish have been forced to retake the exam, and to try to come up with the correct answer.
This time the stakes are even higher. In 2008, there was always the possibility that the Irish could be persuaded to try again, an EU practice sanctioned by previous usage. But to put a treaty to referendum three times would be unheard of, and the document, if voted down today, will not rise again.Supporters of the treaty are warning the Irish of their responsibilities. Without a common security and defence policy, the EU would become unglued: France would pursue its own interests in the Mediterranean, Germany would cuddle up to Russia, and Britain would rush into the arms of Washington.
document.write('');
There is little doubt that the fall of the treaty would halt further EU expansion (except perhaps for Croatia, which is well on the way to joining) and further alienate Turkey, where the pro-Europeans would be dealt a decisive blow, forcing Ankara to look elsewhere for its future alliances.All the opinion polls indicate that the Irish are inclined to vote Yes this time. But it is not geopolitics that motivates them. It is naked fear. Until recently Ireland was the Celtic Tiger, with a booming economy. Now it is one of the basket cases of Europe, with soaring unemployment and a spectacularly burst housing bubble.
European taxpayers' money and membership of the euro, the European currency, have certainly helped Ireland to avoid an even more disastrous crash. The example of Iceland – a more remote island which also over-reached itself on cheap credit but is not a member of the EU – is instructive. The Icelanders, beggared by their reckless banks, are actively considering joining the EU, which will force them to give up their carefully husbanded fish stocks to be gobbled up by the greedy fleets of Europe.
Seeking shelter in a big bloc is understandable. But in Ireland the worry is more specific. The Yes campaign seems to have persuaded the Irish that the only ladder to climb out of the hole they have dug for themselves is provided by Brussels, which could pull it up if they misbehave in the referendum.The voters have some concessions to cling to. The Irish prime minister, the uncharismatic and deeply unpopular Brian Cowen, has wrung some guarantees from Brussels: the Lisbon Treaty will not force Ireland to change its laws on neutrality or abortion (it is a strongly Roman Catholic country) or raise its low rate of corporation tax, the reason why so many large American companies site their European headquarters in Dublin.
Sceptics ask what these “guarantees” will mean in fact, if the EU is to become a military force, with a more co-ordinated economic policy. One of the effects of the treaty will be to reduce the scope for individual countries to wield a veto. The voice of Ireland, and other small countries, will in effect be reduced by this exercise in streamlining.The No campaign, which last year played up fears that the Lisbon Treaty would turn the EU into a militaristic bloc, has lost much of its vigour. This year, the field belongs to the Yes campaign, which has all the money, the stars of business and screen, and the support of government, trade unions and the media. They have convinced key constituencies, including the farmers, that Ireland must join the consensus.
In a year, the mood of the country has changed – from bolshiness in 2008 to fear today. If the opinion polls are right, the European elite will get its way, and the EU have a new chance to become a force in world politics.Only one barrier stands in the way: the record and personality of the prime minister. Mr Cowen is cutting public services and will no doubt have to raise taxes. Such is the contempt of voters for him that they may find it sticks in their throats to approve a document that he embraces. It would not be the first time the voters ignored the real question before them in the interests of giving the government a good kicking.
If this turned out to be the case, it would be a fine irony. This exercise in democracy affecting the lives of half a billion people, the culmination of a decade of effort, would turn on the dislike of the voters of a small country for a politician of whom the world knows little.aphilps@thenational.ae
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The Republic of Ireland is not used to throwing its weight around. It is resolutely neutral and does not send its armies to fight abroad. With its small population of four million it wields little clout in the European Union, a grouping of 500 million citizens.Yet today Ireland is the centre of attention for the whole of Europe as it votes in a referendum that could put an end to the EU's ambitions to be a major player on the world stage. The subject at hand is the Lisbon Treaty, a much rewritten document that aims to streamline European decision-making, giving the bloc its first president and providing it with its own diplomatic corps and security role.
These words may bring a sense of deja vu to some readers. Did not the Irish hold a referendum a little more than a year ago, on the same treaty, and vote it down by a margin of 53 to 47 per cent? They did indeed. But the workings of democracy are a wonder to behold, and especially in the European Union, where the voter is generally outgunned by the bureaucracy.Having voted No last year – the only country of 27 to do so – and thereby consigning the Lisbon Treaty to the dustbin, the Irish have been forced to retake the exam, and to try to come up with the correct answer.
This time the stakes are even higher. In 2008, there was always the possibility that the Irish could be persuaded to try again, an EU practice sanctioned by previous usage. But to put a treaty to referendum three times would be unheard of, and the document, if voted down today, will not rise again.Supporters of the treaty are warning the Irish of their responsibilities. Without a common security and defence policy, the EU would become unglued: France would pursue its own interests in the Mediterranean, Germany would cuddle up to Russia, and Britain would rush into the arms of Washington.
There is little doubt that the fall of the treaty would halt further EU expansion (except perhaps for Croatia, which is well on the way to joining) and further alienate Turkey, where the pro-Europeans would be dealt a decisive blow, forcing Ankara to look elsewhere for its future alliances.All the opinion polls indicate that the Irish are inclined to vote Yes this time. But it is not geopolitics that motivates them. It is naked fear. Until recently Ireland was the Celtic Tiger, with a booming economy. Now it is one of the basket cases of Europe, with soaring unemployment and a spectacularly burst housing bubble.
European taxpayers' money and membership of the euro, the European currency, have certainly helped Ireland to avoid an even more disastrous crash. The example of Iceland – a more remote island which also over-reached itself on cheap credit but is not a member of the EU – is instructive. The Icelanders, beggared by their reckless banks, are actively considering joining the EU, which will force them to give up their carefully husbanded fish stocks to be gobbled up by the greedy fleets of Europe.
Seeking shelter in a big bloc is understandable. But in Ireland the worry is more specific. The Yes campaign seems to have persuaded the Irish that the only ladder to climb out of the hole they have dug for themselves is provided by Brussels, which could pull it up if they misbehave in the referendum.The voters have some concessions to cling to. The Irish prime minister, the uncharismatic and deeply unpopular Brian Cowen, has wrung some guarantees from Brussels: the Lisbon Treaty will not force Ireland to change its laws on neutrality or abortion (it is a strongly Roman Catholic country) or raise its low rate of corporation tax, the reason why so many large American companies site their European headquarters in Dublin.
Sceptics ask what these “guarantees” will mean in fact, if the EU is to become a military force, with a more co-ordinated economic policy. One of the effects of the treaty will be to reduce the scope for individual countries to wield a veto. The voice of Ireland, and other small countries, will in effect be reduced by this exercise in streamlining.The No campaign, which last year played up fears that the Lisbon Treaty would turn the EU into a militaristic bloc, has lost much of its vigour. This year, the field belongs to the Yes campaign, which has all the money, the stars of business and screen, and the support of government, trade unions and the media. They have convinced key constituencies, including the farmers, that Ireland must join the consensus.
In a year, the mood of the country has changed – from bolshiness in 2008 to fear today. If the opinion polls are right, the European elite will get its way, and the EU have a new chance to become a force in world politics.Only one barrier stands in the way: the record and personality of the prime minister. Mr Cowen is cutting public services and will no doubt have to raise taxes. Such is the contempt of voters for him that they may find it sticks in their throats to approve a document that he embraces. It would not be the first time the voters ignored the real question before them in the interests of giving the government a good kicking.
If this turned out to be the case, it would be a fine irony. This exercise in democracy affecting the lives of half a billion people, the culmination of a decade of effort, would turn on the dislike of the voters of a small country for a politician of whom the world knows little.aphilps@thenational.ae
Have your say
Top stories Hamas hands over video in exchange for prisoners Bangladeshi trio charged with trafficking Al Fahim admitted to Dubai hospital Research highlights danger to labourers Home buyers miss out on rates A portrait of Pakistani-American life Oracle rejects RAK for America's Cup Your View Have you had problems getting tickets for the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix?Have you paid unusually high prices for your children's textbooks?What are the worst examples of driving you have seen?Have your children had their return to school delayed?Are you getting more for your rent? Most popular stories Most read Most e-mailed Al Fahim admitted to Dubai hospital Home buyers miss out on rates Research highlights danger to labourers Love is the tender trap in Oman A portrait of Pakistani-American life Burj Dubai tower reaches another major milestone Surfers to get gnarly in Dubai Oracle rejects RAK for America's Cup America's Cup defender arrives at RAK port Bangladeshi trio charged with trafficking Israeli drive to prevent Jewish girls dating Arabs Counterlives Empty churches, full mosques New window to the defence sector Drilling deep for green energy Abu Dhabi revs up for F1 carnival Lagoons buyers offered new deal Property chief looking at long jail term Fitch downgrades seven UAE banks Capital tackles its traffic nightmare var countries=new ddtabcontent("countrytabs") countries.setpersist(true) countries.setselectedClassTarget("link") //"link" or "linkparent" countries.init() Products & Services Your View e-polls e-Paper RSS Feeds Home UAE World Business Sport About us Contact us Terms & Conditions FAQ Site map
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