Would Europe Back President Blair?

Simon Tisdall, The Guardian October 9, 2009

Selecting a 'president' will not be straightforward "“ and what difference it will make to the EU's credibility is anyone's guess

Barring unforeseen accidents or a last-minute stealth candidate, the spanking new job of "president of Europe" looks to be Tony Blair's for the asking. Exactly what Britain's three-term former prime minister and leading exponent of the Clinton era Third Way would make of the new post, what powers he might wield, and what he could actually achieve is another matter entirely.

The role of permanent president, created by the Lisbon treaty (assuming it is finally ratified by the recalcitrant Czechs), comes with a two-and-a-half-year term, renewable once, and involves chairing the four annual EU heads of government summits. Beyond that, the president's capacities and duties are as yet largely undefined. But the broad idea is to appoint a person with international standing who can speak for a united Europe on the world stage, in concert with its new foreign policy chief.

European diplomats and analysts say Blair is currently the clear frontrunner, with support expected from the five biggest EU member states, albeit with varying degrees of enthusiasm. French president Nicolas Sarkozy, an Atlanticist like Blair, is thought to be on board. So, too, are Italy's Silvio Berlusconi, an old Blair ally, and more surprisingly, Spain's Socialist leader, José Luis Zapatero, who remembers Blair's help in combating ETA separatist violence.

The key vote is Germany, Europe's biggest economy and the EU's paymaster. Before winning last month's federal elections, the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, was said to be "reluctant" about Blair's candidacy. But now she heads a centre-right government that is no longer beholden to Social Democrat coalition partners who reviled Blair's Iraq role, Merkel, though still lukewarm, is not expected to actively block him.

"Germany is absolutely critical," said Charles Grant of the Centre for European Reform. "Blair will get it unless Germany decides to stop him or a coalition of the smaller countries unites behind a rival candidate." Blair could also count on support from Romania and Bulgaria, whose 2004 Nato membership he championed in the wake of the Kosovo war, and central European countries such as the Czech Republic, Grant said. A French diplomat said as far as Paris was aware, Germany had not expressed a preference for an alternative candidate.

Names in the frame apart from Blair include Felipe Gonzalez, a former Spanish prime minister, Jan Peter Balkenende, the Dutch premier, and Paavo Lipponen, who as prime minister led traditionally non-aligned, neutral Finland into the EU. Some obscure Belgians and Luxembourgers are also said to be interested. But analysts say none of the above can match Blair's international profile, experience, and established relationships with the likes of Barack Obama, Russia's Vladimir Putin and China's Hu Jintao.

The case against Blair is nevertheless a strong one, if a credible candidate emerges to exploit it between now and the 29 October EU summit. Smaller EU countries are viscerally opposed to the idea of their big brothers sharing out top appointments. Belgium, in particular, is still sore about Blair's 2004 veto of its then prime minister, Guy Verhofstadt, for the post of EU commission president.

Blair's advocacy of the Iraq war and his close relationship with George Bush turned centre-left European opinion against him "“ although fewer countries are governed by such groupings than was the case in 2003. There are also fears that a high-profile show-off such as Blair might engage in an institutional power grab, potentially bringing him into conflict with José Manuel Barroso's European commission or the new foreign policy chief.

Blair's failure as prime minister to fulfil his 1997 vision of placing Britain at the heart of Europe, and in particular his refusal to campaign for Britain to join the eurozone, has also left lingering question marks over his commitment to the EU. How firmly he would deal with David Cameron's Europhobic Tories, should they win power, or that other unenthusiastic European, Gordon Brown, should he retain the premiership, is unclear.

Other factors will complicate the EU's choice. For example, the nationality of the new president will have a direct bearing on who becomes foreign policy tsar. Former Hong Kong governor and EU commissioner Chris Patten would be an excellent pick, analysts say, but he has no chance if fellow Briton Blair gets the presidency. France and Germany may want this post for themselves. But the smart money right now is on Jaap De Hoop Scheffer, the former Dutch foreign minister and Nato secretary general.

In this looming jobs-for-the-boys bunfight, smaller countries who oppose Blair will in turn demand compensation in the form of plum jobs in the new Brussels commission, while hard-bargainers like Poland will want a juicy quid pro quo before committing their support to anyone for anything.

Eventually, they will all settle down again, like kids at a party when the music stops. But what if any difference it will make to the EU's effectiveness or credibility is anybody's guess. Don't hold your breath.

Would Europe Back President Blair?

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