Is Iran’s influence in the Middle East beginning to recede? Some will dismiss this question as undue speculation at a time when Iranian activism continues unabated. Yet underneath the bombast coming from Tehran, there is an unmistakable sense that the Islamic Republic has reached the limits of its appeal.
The paradox is that Iran’s power was at its peak only a few months ago, on the eve of the disputed elections. Internally, power was firmly in the hands of a conservative clique utterly obedient to the Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, and in which the president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, was the most visible player. Regionally Iran had become a heavyweight able both to shape the Middle Eastern agenda and to thwart the US. For many, Iran seemed determined, omnipotent and unstoppable.
Since then, however, the controversy over the elections has exposed the reality of a profoundly troubled country, where the legitimacy of the ruling elite is contested and the cost of an aggressive foreign policy questioned. Among the slogans heard during the street protests was “Na Qazeh, Na Lobnan, Janam Faday-e Iran” or “No Gaza, No Lebanon, My life to be sacrificed for Iran”.
Later, as Mr Ahmadinejad prepared to speak at the UN in New York, came a statement from the opposition: “The Green Movement does not want a nuclear bomb, but instead desires peace for the world and democracy for Iran. The Green Movement in Iran furthermore understands the world’s concerns and in fact has similar concerns itself.” The opposition may not be on the verge of winning power, but Iran’s allies, supporters and enemies alike must have taken note of fundamental divergences that would take the country in opposite directions depending on the outcome of the power struggle in Tehran.
