Yemen, an ancient and remote place, has long been ignored by the media. Its oceans, deserts and mountains have greeted potential conquerors with hostility, and its confused and confusing politics have kept journalists at bay. Even to dedicated scholars of and in the Arab world, Yemen has been an exotic place. But recently, the convulsions driven by an inexorable pull of history have captured the attention of journalists, politicians and scholars. Frequently immune to history, Yemen is isolated no more.
The reasons why are known to anyone with a browsing familiarity with the daily papers. Yemen is currently being wrenched by three revolutions, independent of each other but with a common theme: the central government is more than illegitimate – it is antithetical to the nature and history of Yemen.
The rebellions are the Houthi revolt in the north, the southern secessionist movement and the pervasive threat of a reconstituted Al-Qaeda. Without delving too deeply into history, each one is based on a series of decisions and indecisions flowing from Yemen’s separate revolts against imamate and colonialism, its unification and its civil war. The north, roughly, feels that President Ali Abdullah Saleh’s approximation of republicanism is an affront to Yemen’s monarchial, decentralized rule, and southerners broadly feel colonized in their own country. Al-Qaeda, of course, feels that any ruler not following its strict laws is an apostate and a traitor. These are the themes being played out in Yemen, set tragically against the jagged backdrop of economic collapse and ecological ruin.
The Houthi rebellion has been the one grabbing the most attention since violence flared for the sixth time earlier this year. The government showed a disdain for subtlety, nicknaming its campaign Operation Scorched Earth. Though a ceasefire is in effect, the underlying grievances still remain. And while the war is rooted deeply in Yemeni history, many commentators have tried to paint it as proxy fight between Iran and Saudi Arabia, the regional powers.
The main thrust of the argument is that the rebels are Shiite Muslims and therefore supposedly kindred with the “ancient” revolutionaries running Iran, hence getting aid and comfort. And, of course, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia opposes any attempt by Iran to impose its will in the region and certainly on the Peninsula. This ignores the fact that the Shiite Islam practiced by the Houthis is far removed from Iran’s Twelver theology (and is often referred to as the sixth school of Sunni Islam); it also ignores the long-standing enmity between Sanaa and Riyadh. And despite the picture Saleh attempts to present to the world, there is no evidence of Iranian interference. But his portrayal has been effective, and supposed Iranian mischief has been a reason why the world has largely turned a blind eye to the government’s scorched earth policy. In international relations, there is little shadow between perception and reality.
The southern secessionist movement is a different animal. The world is concerned about Yemen fragmenting, and distaste for Marxist remnants is subsumed under the auspices of national unity. Were Yemen to split apart, aside from the historical failure of what was a rare political triumph in the Arab world, the Saleh government would lose major sources of revenue both in oil and from the large port of Aden. This would hasten its slide into failed state. And it would also be a perception loss for the West: an ostensible ally in the war against radical fundamentalism can’t be allowed to split apart.
Al-Qaeda’s revolt is more immediately prominent in the international context. Though there is no evidence that displaced jihadists from the Afghanistan/Pakistan region are regrouping in Yemen, it is indisputable that a powerful new franchise has broken ground in the Peninsula. The marriage between the Saudi and Yemeni branches of Al-Qaeda was essentially consummated in the failed attempt on the life of Saudi Interior Minister Sheikh Mohammad bin Nayef. Though the attack was unsuccessful, it showed the patience, the cunning and the reach of the organization – a group with the intelligence and the manpower to carry out attacks in Saudi Arabia as well as on key shipping lanes around the Horn of Africa. The world is tied down in the AfPak conflict; Al-Qaeda has almost free reign in the wilds of Yemen.
And that is the main importance, on a global political scale, of these rebellions. Yemen is poised on the brink of collapse, and the enemies of the Western world stand ready to take advantage. A strong and well-funded government would have enormous difficulties dealing with these problems; Yemen is neither, and is therefore incapable. A failed state would be even more of a breeding ground and safe-haven for Al-Qaeda – even more than a dangerously distracted or over-stretched state currently is. Were there no Al-Qaeda, the world might be able to treat Yemen’s internal convulsions as an unfortunate sideshow, like fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan. That might not be moral, but it would be possible.
That luxury, though, is impossible. Yemen has been an important stop on trade routes and has given the world spices and stories and legends. But it has rarely played a decisive role in history. That is no longer the case. Were the global community to take the cheap and easy route of ignoring Yemen’s crumbling edifices, it would have to pay for it 10 times over in the near future. Yemen’s history may be exotic, its politics may be confusing and its present may be idiosyncratic, but it is unwillingly imposing its problems on the rest of the world. The world, in turn, has to be willing to adopt these problems.
Brian O’Neill is a freelance writer based in Chicago. A former reporter and editor for the Yemen Observer, he currently co-runs the Yemen blog Waq al-Waq (islamandinsurgencyinyemen.blogspot.com). This commentary first appeared at bitterlemons-international.org, an online newsletter.
Printable Version Send to a friend Listen to the Article
Your feedback is important to us! We invite all our readers to share with us their views and comments about this article.
Click here NOW to Comment on this Article
More Opinion Articles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . »Malaysia's ruling party has out-Islamized the opposition »What would be at stake in a third intifada? »Is there more time left on Iran's nuclear clock? »Abbas, the 'good Palestinian,' becomes Netanyahu's chief rival »Lebanon needs both security and freedom »Zooming in on the conflict in northern Yemen »October 24: A day to stand up for planetary justice »Arab education is very elementary »If implemented, Obama's nuclear agenda will render 2010 a critical year »A decision on Afghanistan is worth making twice »Strings attached to a shaky policy »Of tunnels, Goldstone and the 'peace process'
For a new Star Scene experience, check our new website at http://starscene.dailystar.com.lb
Privacy Policy | Anti-Spamming Policy | Copyright Policy | Jobs@Daily Star
Copyright © 2009, The Daily Star. All rights reserved. Click here to contact our syndication department for permission to republish or make other authorized use of this material. Contact the Online editor to report any problems with the site or to send your comments and suggestions. var sc_project=731379; var sc_invisible=1; var sc_partition=6; var sc_security="3de32f75"; LEBANON NEWS Politics. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .» Three Israeli "�spy devices' blown up in Lebanon» Cabinet talks on hold as Sleiman in Spain» Top French officials weigh in on cabinet formationBusiness. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .» Azour takes part in Buttonwood Gathering» Insead director says downturn a good time to study» Merrill Lynch keeps Lebanon's debt at "�Market Weight' -- More Lebanon News -- _uacct = "UA-360006-1"; urchinTracker();
Your feedback is important to us! We invite all our readers to share with us their views and comments about this article.
Click here NOW to Comment on this Article
For a new Star Scene experience, check our new website at http://starscene.dailystar.com.lb
Privacy Policy | Anti-Spamming Policy | Copyright Policy | Jobs@Daily Star
Read Full Article »