I remember interviewing two young Helmand farmers in early 2006. They had travelled to the provincial capital, Lashkar Gah, from the remote north of the province looking for work.
I wanted to ask them about the impending arrival of British Forces. As I ran through my questions their faces were blank. They had not heard of British soldiers coming to Helmand, nor had they heard of a country called Britain, its capital London or its famous export, the BBC.
In a country as remote, as impoverished and as poorly educated as Afghanistan, how much does it matter who the country’s president is, how he is elected and whether that election passes standards we regard as basic requirements for democracy?
In one sense it is of limited importance. Rural Afghans — and most of the populace is rural — have little direct contact with their Government. How much influence can a distant regime in Kabul have on the lives of Helmand farmers when it delivers almost no services and extracts no taxes?
Afghan society is hierarchical, largely tribal and based on systems of patronage (financed historically, as today, by Great Power donations). The closest most Afghans get to their Government is through the disbursement of largesse from the centre, channelled through local tribal chiefs and powerbrokers and tied to reciprocal local support.
Most Afghans were told whom to vote for in this summer’s elections by their community leaders, and have fairly limited knowledge of the particular platforms of the candidates — though it is worth noting that levels of political awareness are changing as modern media begin to reach even remote areas.
But if ideology appears to feature little in the calculation of many voters, this does not mean that ideals are not important. What has kept most Afghans signed up to Western intervention for the past eight years is the promise that the West’s presence will deliver three clear results: justice, a basic level of peace and security and, ultimately, the opportunity for economic betterment.
Ordinary Afghans are instinctively suspicious of the motives of foreigners, particularly non-Muslim ones, but by a clear majority in every opinion poll, they yearn for these goals. They welcomed Western forces in 2001 solely because they believed they could deliver them.
The Taleban Government offered people no hope of economic improvement. However, it did deliver a form of justice and security that, although far from pleasant to live under, was preferable to the war-torn anarchy that Afghanistan suffered in the early Nineties. Today, with the country beset by violence, those two choices have never been more finely balanced in the minds of Afghans.
This is why the legitimacy of the presidential elections and the government it produces do matter so much. When Afghanistan goes to the polls again on November 7, Hamid Karzai, the President, starts as the firm favourite. He would almost certainly win a fair election because he is the only candidate from the majority Pashtun ethnicity with some ability to reach across ethnic divisions. His victory remains the most likely result of the second ballot.
It was for this reason that some argued in favour of ignoring the fraud that took place in the first round. That would have been easy but counterproductive. If Western governments lose sight of the goal of a just government and collude blatantly in corruption, then they cede the high ground to the Taleban, and the fine balance between the two sides shifts slightly, but significantly.
Fortunately, despite signs that Western governments intended to duck the need for a second round of voting, that commitment to fair elections has now been made. It was courageous and important because Afghans are currently making a further calculation: they are trying to work out whether the West’s will to stay is collapsing. Are we about to abandon the promises made to the Afghan people in 2001? The Afghans have experienced this before in the late Eighties when the Soviet Union pronounced that the Najibullah Government could stand on its own and pulled out its forces.
Once Afghans believe that the West is going to withdraw, they will shift their support very quickly. It is a pattern with which they are only too familiar after 30 years of chronic instability. The south will throw its support fully behind the Taleban. The north will ready itself for a new civil war. Those within the flimsy Afghan Government will prepare an exit strategy for themselves and their families.
Afghanistan’s neighbours — Pakistan, Iran, India, China and Russia — all of whom have strategic interests in its fate are keenly observing what the Western allies intend to do. They have all nurtured proxy forces in the country in the past; the question for these neighbouring powers is whether to be more active.
In the case of the Pakistanis, that would mean ramping up their support for their own placemen, the Afghan Taleban (as distinct from the Pakistan Taleban that they are now fighting in Waziristan), against the potential threat of their enemy, India, increasing its influence in the country. Jihadists around the world would celebrate this increasing instability.
The West has probably its last chance to deliver a clear and decisive commitment to the Afghan people. That strategy needs to be built around a government that is legitimate in the eyes of the Afghan people and bound to the clear goals that the West promised them in 2001. It then needs to be supported in a way that will convince Afghans that the West has the will to succeed. Otherwise there is no point in being there.
Tom Coghlan was the Times correspondent in Afghanistan until this year
Order By:
Would you like to post a comment? Please register or log in
function blogURL(bUrls) { window.location=bUrls; } fieldset { float:left; width:165px; border:0px; margin:0px; padding:0px; } OUR COLUMNISTS
Columnists
Select David Aaronovitch Simon Barnes Camilla Cavendish Jeremy Clarkson Giles Coren Robert Crampton Daniel Finkelstein Michael Gove Anatole Kaletsky India Knight Dominic Lawson Leo Lewis Rod Liddle Magnus Linklater Ben MacIntyre Bronwen Maddox Minette Marrin Carol Midgley Caitlin Moran Richard Morrison Matthew Parris Michael Portillo Libby Purves William Rees-Mogg Melanie Reid Peter Riddell Hugo Rifkind Sathnam Sanghera Frank Skinner Graham Stewart Andrew Sullivan Rachel Sylvester Janice Turner Guest contributors
Blogs
Select Alpha Mummy Archive Blog David Aaronovitch Asia Exile Baby Barista Blockbuster Buzz Gerard Baker Charles Bremner Big Brother Mary Beard Comment Central Consumer Central Cricket Blog Eco Worrier Faith Central Fashion Formula One Ruth Gledhill Inside Iraq Ariel Leve India Knight Money Rafael Nadal News Blog William Rees-Mogg Rugby Sinofile Mick Smith Sports Commentary Irwin Stelzer Peter Stothard Surf Nation Technology Travel Urban dirt Video Wimbledon
Camilla Cavendish wins award for family justice campaign
Columns urging greater openness in family courts win Paul Foot Award
Cartoon More cartoons Peter Stothard
The Editor of the TLS writes on books, people and politics
A Don's Life
Mary Beard of Cambridge and the TLS on culture ancient and modern
Moir on Gately: seriously flawed Comment Central MOST READ MOST COMMENTED MOST CURIOUS Most Read Skip Most Read Today Pope's gambit could see 1,000 quit Church of... British military steps up fightback against... Bernard Madoff's life behind bars revealed A particle God doesn’t want us to... MOST COMMENTED Skip Editor's Pick Today if(isArticle == "true" && articleHeadlines.length!=0){ for(var j=0; j=45){ headline = articleHeadlines[j].substring(0,44)+"..."; } document.write(""+headline +""); } }else{ fSubmitMostCommented('http://community.timesonline.co.uk/ver1.0/Direct/Process'); } MOST CURIOUS Skip Most Curious Today Condoms catch up with Pill as safe sex... Lord Judge calls for jury system that caters... Mystery over Tube escalator etiquette... Fans left frustrated after Jenson Button's... Focus Zone Northern Lights:
Explore Newcastle Gateshead with the award-winning childrens author David Almond
Need to Know:
Industry sectors news at a glance. Interactive heatmap, video and podcast
Business Travel:
Everything the Business Traveller needs to know to make a better trip
Winter Sports:
Get ready for the winter sports season, with our resort guides and snow reports
More reports:
Enjoy further reading from Travel to Fashion, Business to Sport, discover more
Northern Lights Need to Know Business Travel Winter Sports More reports Births, deaths, marriages
Place your announcement
Business Directory
Search for local businesses & services
Crossword Club
Sign up today or try one of our free demo crosswords
Free CV Review
Sell yourself! Have your CV reviewed by experts
Announcements
Search The Times Births, Marriages & Deaths
Online Sudoku with daily prizes Find a Lawyer
Cut your legal costs
Popular Searches on Times Online books | chess | crosswords | fantasy football | fashion | formula 1 | horoscopes | Michael Jackson | need to know | obituaries | recipes | redundancy calculator | science | sudoku | swine flu | travel deals | twitter | university guide | wine | wintersun
Shortcuts to help you find sections and articles
Classifieds Cars Jobs Property Travel Cars Skip Cars of the Week New Audi A5 2.0 TDI Sportback
36-month car lease on contract hire for £359.99 plus VAT pm
Apply for car finance?
Check your free Experian credit report before applying
Prestige Car Finance
The UK's leading alternative to showroom finance. Finance packages tailored to your needs. Minimum loan of £15,000
Great car insurance deals online
Car Insurance
Search for more cars and bikes Jobs Skip Jobs of the Week Sales & Marketing Director
£40k + bonus and benefits Archgate Cleaning & Support Services Ltd London
Gateway to Leadership
Unspecified NHS Unspecified
Director Travel Distribution Europe
£80-110k+ car + bonus + benefits PSD London
Senior Personal Secretary
£23,557 to £29,355 Cabinet Office London
Search more Jobs Properties Exclusive development in Cyprus
Akamas Bay Villas
Luxurious five bed penthouse overlooking Fistral Beach.
For sale with Winkworth.
Eager to get on the property ladder? Find out about shared ownership.
Looking for a Mortgage?
See your free Experian credit report beforehand
Search for more properties Holidays Skip Travel of the Week Amazing Canada Ski deals fr £569pp
Book now & save over £100pp. 11 cool resorts, lowest prices... Early Booking offers 15 Nov.
Sunvil
20% off selected Azores holidays taken in October with Sunvil Discovery
Great Travel Insurance
Get covered on your travels with a superb range of policies at great prices. Visit InsureandGo.com
Fabulous Villas in Barbados
World Class Golf, Spa and preferential Beach Club.��Private estate overlooking West Coast Villas from £275 per night inclusive of Golf
Search for more holidays Place your advert now
Search Ad Reference:
Where am I?
Home Comment Columnists Guest contributors Contact us Back to top NewsCommentBusinessMoneySportLife & StyleTravelDrivingArts & EntsArchive Times Online Times Archive Google TLS Archive
Contact our advertising team for advertising and sponsorship in Times Online, The Times and The Sunday Times, or place your advertisement.
Times Online Services: Dating | Jobs | Property Search | Used Cars | Holidays | Births, Marriages, Deaths | Subscriptions | E-paper
News International associated websites: Globrix Property Search | Milkround
Copyright 2009 Times Newspapers Ltd.
This service is provided on Times Newspapers' standard Terms and Conditions. Please read our Privacy Policy.To inquire about a licence to reproduce material from Times Online, The Times or The Sunday Times, click here.This website is published by a member of the News International Group. News International Limited, 1 Virginia St, London E98 1XY, is the holding company for the News International group and is registered in England No 81701. VAT number GB 243 8054 69.
Blogs
Columns urging greater openness in family courts win Paul Foot Award
The Editor of the TLS writes on books, people and politics
Mary Beard of Cambridge and the TLS on culture ancient and modern
Explore Newcastle Gateshead with the award-winning childrens author David Almond
Industry sectors news at a glance. Interactive heatmap, video and podcast
Read Full Article »